Americans who heat their homes primarily with natural gas or propane face lower overall heating costs this winter, while those who rely on electricity or heating oil will likely have higher bills than last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its 2026-27 winter fuels outlook.

The EIA expects national average temperatures to be similar to last winter. Warmer weather is forecast for the Northeast and colder weather for the West, while the South and Midwest are seen with average temperatures similar to last winter. Temperatures could vary a lot from the forecasts due to the El Niño weather pattern, the agency added.

Average expenditure for natural-gas heated homes is seen at $640 for the November-March period, down 9% from the year-earlier period, in line with the expected drop in natural gas prices. Expenditures are expected to be up 7% in the West on higher consumption, partially offsetting double-digit expenditure declines in the Midwest, South and Northeast.

For homes heated with electricity, the national average expenditure is seen up 4% at $1,196 for the five-month period. An average household heated with propane gas can expect to spend $1,246 on heating, or 3% less than last winter.

Homes using heating oil, which account for about 3% of U.S. households, face bills of $2,115 on average for the November-March period, or 21% more than last winter "driven by increasing global crude oil and distillate prices," the EIA said.