The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1157 ET - As fear of artificial intelligence becomes increasingly widespread, Microsoft is looking more attractive, Melius Research analysts say in a research note. "Satya Nadella and his team are increasingly going to be considered the 'adults in charge,'" the analysts write, noting the dynamic should benefit Microsoft's pricing trends and adoption. "While 'paying extra for AI' may not be a thing with certain SaaS companies (like Adobe) leaders like Microsoft especially (and even companies like ServiceNow) are going to get boosted more than we thought previously due to AI fears," the analysts say. Melius upgrades Microsoft to buy. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
1116 ET - The combination of Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise victory in the first round of Brazil's elections and the possibility of a Democratic sweep of the House of Representatives and Senate in the U.S. elections in November is seen as a source of support for markets, says Stephen Coltman of 21shares in a note. "Electoral politics are becoming impossible for investors to ignore," says Coltman. He also points out that rising bond yields in Europe carry the risk of "morphing into a credit contagion risk for euro zone sovereign bonds." Agricultural and precious metals futures are higher, as is the equity markets and base metals. Energy and cryptocurrencies are mixed in morning trade. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1102 ET - Brazilian stocks rally following a conservative surprise in Sunday's general elections. Presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro carries momentum in the runoff against leftist incumbent Lula da Silva, while conservative candidates win seats across Congress and state governorships. The results are perceived as market-friendly, fueling bets on reduced government spending and privatization. State-controlled oil producer Petrobras rises 6% in local currency and state bank Banco do Brasil is up 11%. In the private sector, digital bank Nu Holdings rises 14%. The Ibovespa stock index climbs 7%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1038 ET - Cenovus Energy is paying a fuller price for Athabasca Oil, but the cost of scaling up is likely worth it, according to TD Cowen's Menno Hulshof. In a report, the analyst says the company is paying a premium for "growth, resource depth and synergy potential." He says that the deal consolidates scalable thermal resources around Cenovus' Christina Lake area operations, with around C$85 million in synergies identified, which "CVE's upstream operating expertise could drive upside beyond." While the C$5.7 billion price tag is higher, Hulshof calls the cost inevitable "given it is one of the last remaining thermal plays and arguably carries a scarcity premium." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1012 ET - Qatar leads most major Gulf stocks higher Monday, with the QE Index rising 1.1%. Abu Dhabi's benchmark index gains 0.4% and the Dubai Financial Market General Index edges up 0.1%, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index bucks the trend, falling 0.3%. The Saudi retreat comes after foreign investors pulled a net $1.16 billion from the kingdom's equities in September, marking a third consecutive month of outflows, according to Iridium Advisors. Saudi stocks fell 6.1% during the month, while GCC equities recorded $2.33 billion of foreign outflows in 3Q, the highest quarterly outflow in Iridium's data going back to 2019. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0906 ET - BT Group's acquisition of TalkTalk and PlatformX Communications is positive and likely to be approved by the U.K. government, Berenberg analysts write. "The U.K. government will decide on the deal before the end of October, but given the lack of alternatives we would expect it to be approved," they say. The analysts say the deal is positive for a number of reasons, including that it limits market and service disruption for customers, and avoids Openreach revenue and line losses. Berenberg has a buy rating on the stock and 3-pound target price. Shares are up 1.2% at 198.60 pence and 8% higher over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0904 ET - Carlsberg should see improved revenue growth over the third quarter despite a likely slowdown in volume growth, analysts at Bernstein write in a note to clients. Bad weather and destocking in China will weigh on volumes at the Danish brewer, but a better price mix should offset those negatives, Bernstein says. For the full year, current expectations on input-price inflation should hold true, the brokerage adds. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0848 ET - Intesa Sanpaolo's weekend move on its offer for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena put the ball back in its target's court, forcing Monte dei Paschi to convince shareholders of the merits of its alternative plan, Oddo BHF says. Intesa raised the price of its offer by roughly 800 million euros to 31.4 billion euros, as long as Monte dei Paschi shareholders reject the alternative bids for Banco BPM and Banca Generali. This skillfully turns the pressure back on Monte dei Paschi and avoids a protracted uncertainty phase by making Monte dei Paschi shareholders choose at a vote scheduled for this month, Oddo's Steven Gould and Benoit Valleaux say in a research note. Intesa and Monte dei Paschi shares rise 1.3% and 1%, respectively. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0826 ET - Cenovus' plan to buy Athabasca Oil is the latest step in a wave of consolidation in Canada's oil sands region. Major Canadian producers are locking up contiguous, long-life oil assets in the region as energy falls under the global spotlight. Domestically, the C$5.7 billion acquisition is bolstered by momentum for key export corridors like the proposed Pacific Link pipeline, which promises faster access to global markets. The deal comes about a year after Cenovus' takeover of MEG Energy, and continues the trend of solidifying its position in Alberta. Cenovus says the acquisition adds 45,000 barrels a day of immediate output and targets 115,000 barrels a day by 2032, allowing it to maximize operational scale, capture C$85 million in annual synergies and capitalize on expanding export access. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0808 ET - Suncor Energy's sale of interests in Eastern Canadian offshore assets for at least C$1.2 billion makes strategic sense, even if the transaction looks largely net present value-neutral, Raymond James' Michael Barth reckons. Suncor is selling its 48% interest in Terra Nova, 40% interest in White Rose and 38.6% interest in West White Rose offshore assets to Ithaca Energy. Barth notes Suncor also is transferring about C$1.4 billion of liabilities. The assets have a relatively short current life, and an exit frees up cash for share buybacks or accelerated growth in Suncor's core portfolio, the analyst says. Raymond James retains an outperform call and C$118 target on Suncor's shares. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
0802 ET - Intesa Sanpaolo strengthened its hand in its pursuit of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena by bumping the cash component of its offer and winning the support of its target's biggest shareholder, Delfin, Barclays analysts say in a research note. In addition to more cash, Intesa also offered more clarity on its conditions as its bid is subject to Monte dei Paschi shareholders rejecting the bank's alternative proposals to buy Banco BPM and Banca Generali, the analysts say. "Combined with Delfin's commitment to tender its 17.6% stake in MPS, we think this strengthens [Intesa's] position, and BPER's too," the analysts add, referring to Intesa's proposed partner to buy part of Monte dei Paschi's assets. Intesa shares rise 1.3%, while Monte dei Paschi's are up 0.7%.(adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0753 ET - Schneider Electric's $22.6 billion deal to buy PTC shouldn't raise major antitrust concerns, but politics could theoretically pose a threat, MKI Global Partners says. "PTC's software is widely used across the U.S. defense industrial base, and the buyer is French at a time when relations between Washington and Paris are poor, strained by disputes over Greenland, tariffs, digital regulation, the Middle East and other matters," MKI says. From an antitrust perspective, there is some overlap between Schneider and PTC's portfolios in industrial augmented reality software and electrical design software, but this is small and could be fixed with a sale, according to MKI. Schneider shares fall 9.8%, while PTC rises 37% in U.S. premarket trading.