The freight divide: why Black Sea war strikes have pulled shipping rates far above the wider Atlantic Panamax market

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Two freight markets have been moving through the same ten weeks this summer and autumn, and they have barely looked like the same market. On the main Atlantic Panamax routes out of the US Gulf and ...

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One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.0a0bd8dc.png","ogUrl":"https://sg1.tigeractivity.com/news/2672750029"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2672750029\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2672750029?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-10-01 12:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2672750029","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"The freight divide: why Black Sea war strikes have pulled shipping rates far above the wider Atlantic Panamax market","media":"Fastmarkets","content":"<div>\n<p>Two freight markets have been moving through the same ten weeks this summer and autumn, and they have barely looked like the same market. On the main Atlantic Panamax routes out of the US Gulf and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-freight-divide-why-black-sea-war-strikes-have-pulled-shipping-rates-far-above-the-wider-atlantic-panamax-market/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The freight divide: why Black Sea war strikes have pulled shipping rates far above the wider Atlantic Panamax market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe freight divide: why Black Sea war strikes have pulled shipping rates far above the wider Atlantic Panamax market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-01 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-freight-divide-why-black-sea-war-strikes-have-pulled-shipping-rates-far-above-the-wider-atlantic-panamax-market/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Two freight markets have been moving through the same ten weeks this summer and autumn, and they have barely looked like the same market. On the main Atlantic Panamax routes out of the US Gulf and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-freight-divide-why-black-sea-war-strikes-have-pulled-shipping-rates-far-above-the-wider-atlantic-panamax-market/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BOAT","symbol_name":"SonicShares Global Shipping ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-freight-divide-why-black-sea-war-strikes-have-pulled-shipping-rates-far-above-the-wider-atlantic-panamax-market/","article_id":"2672750029","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-freight-divide-why-black-sea-war-strikes-have-pulled-shipping-rates-far-above-the-wider-atlantic-panamax-market/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2672750029","pubTimestamp":1790827200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Atlantic Panamax freight rose steadily over ten weeks on ordinary demand, while Black Sea rates more than doubled, and in places nearly quadrupled, as strikes on ports and vessels drove prices.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BOAT":"SonicShares Global Shipping ETF","INFL":"HORIZON KINETICS INFLATION BENEFICIARIES ETF","SHPP":"PACER INDUSTRIALS AND LOGISTICS ETF","SUPP":"TCW Transform Supply Chain ETF","XTN":"SPDR S&P Transportation ETF"},"translate_title":"运费鸿沟：为什么黑海战争罢工使运费远高于更广泛的大西洋巴拿马型船市场","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SUPP":1.5,"XTN":1.5,"BOAT":1.5,"SHPP":1.5,"INFL":1.5},"content_text":"Two freight markets have been moving through the same ten weeks this summer and autumn, and they have barely looked like the same market. On the main Atlantic Panamax routes out of the US Gulf and Brazil, rates have climbed steadily on ordinary demand: strong soybean exports, tight vessel supply, a Panama Canal restriction here and there.   On the Black Sea routes running out of Russia and Ukraine, the same period has seen freight rates more than double, and in places nearly quadruple, as escalating strikes on ports and vessels have been the main price driver. \nThe wider Atlantic: rates drifting up on ordinary demand \nFastmarkets’ assessment for Panamax freight from the US Gulf to Northeast Asia moved from $71.25 per tonne in early July to $76.25 per tonne by September 23, a rise of around 7% over the period. The Brazil to Northeast Asia route moved further in percentage terms, from $49.25 per tonne to $57.00 per tonne, up around 16%, reflecting a run of strong South American export data that held through the whole window. \nBrazil exported 4.99 million tonnes of soybeans in the first two weeks of July alone, at a daily rate 16.9% higher than the same point in 2025, and the country’s National Grain Exporter Association (ANEC) put full-August soybean exports at 10.25 million tonnes, up from 8.11 million tonnes a year earlier. By September, Brazilian customs data showed the daily export rate running 9.5% ahead of the same month in 2025. China’s return to the US soybean market added a further layer of support: state-owned traders had bought close to 12 million tonnes of US beans since July for fourth-quarter delivery by early September, with Sinograin alone taking 1 million tonnes on September 8. \nVessel supply tightened in step. One shipbroker pointed to “the three major cargo supply regions for Capes… firing on all cylinders, West Africa, Brazil and Western Australia” in early September, while a renewed round of Panama Canal restrictions, linked to El Nino, began adding distance and cost to US-China bulk voyages from late August. Bunker rates climbed alongside freight: 380-centistoke fuel oil in Singapore rose from $654.50 per tonne in late August to a peak of $721.50 per tonne by September 16, before easing back to $709 by September 23. \nBy the last week of September, with a Trump-Xi summit approaching, the market’s own read on itself had settled into cautious confidence rather than urgency. “Flows are still on an uptrend through year-end, with tonnage and congestion slightly higher year-on-year, while bunkers remain supportive,” one shipping source said. “We’ve seen some softening, but the underlying fundamentals still look fairly solid.” Even the optimism around the summit was hedged: one source expected “US corn purchases could pick up following the negotiations,” while another questioned how much further China’s buying could realistically go, noting the country’s soybean import growth was “positive, but no longer dramatic” against its stated commitment of 25 million tonnes a year to 2028.\n\nThe Black Sea: when war escalation becomes the price \nThe divergence starts almost as soon as the window opens. By mid-July, escalating strikes between Ukraine and Russia had already made the Black Sea market “ever more illiquid,” with ships increasingly refusing to call at the Greater Odesa ports after Russian strikes damaged port infrastructure. “Guess EWRI [Extra War Risk Insurance] could go up and many vessels will refuse calling Ukraine as well,” one Ukrainian source said, just before the closure of the Azov Sea to shipping stifled the coaster market out of Azov entirely.  \nAt that point, Panamax freight from Russia’s Black Sea ports to Saudi Arabia stood at $40.00 per tonne, and Handysize freight from Russia to Egypt at $19.00 per tonne. \nFrom there, the two routes climbed almost without pause. By August 19, Russia-Saudi Arabia Panamax had reached $55 per tonne and Russia-Egypt Handysize $48 per tonne. A week later, Russia-Egypt Handysize jumped to $60 per tonne after Ukrainian attacks disabled Novorossiysk’s three major grain terminals; sources described the port as “somehow operational,” with “almost no activity.”  \nBy September 9, after Novorossiysk was struck again by drones overnight, with persistent fires suggesting oil or fuel facilities had been hit, Russia-Egypt Handysize had reached $71 per tonne, up 12.7% in a single week, and Russia-Saudi Arabia Panamax stood at $80 per tonne. By September 23, the two routes had reached $77 and $87 per tonne respectively, more than double and more than four times their mid-July levels. \nFastmarkets maintained a suspension of price assessments throughout the period for Ukraine’s deep-sea ports at Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk, with one Ukrainian broker describing the grains market there as “completely dead.” Trade instead concentrated at Ukraine’s Danube ports and the Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) ports in Romania and Bulgaria, and the strain showed up as congestion rather than price alone.  \nBy September 9, Avalon Shipping Operations Manager Kateryna Kononenko put the queue at the Sulina entrance to the Danube at 80 vessels, with only 8 having entered Ukrainian ports in the preceding four days and waiting times of 14 to 17 days; one broker called it “limited tonnage supply and huge waiting times at Sulina.” Danube-Marmara coaster rates rose from $53 per tonne in August to $85 per tonne by late September, with the more lucrative Danube-Egypt coaster route reported above $100 per tonne at times. \nThe clearest sign that shippers were routing around the strikes rather than pricing through it came from Russia’s own wheat export data. In the week ending September 4, 74.4% of Russian wheat shipments went through the Baltic ports against 18.7% through the Black Sea; a week later, the Baltic share had risen to 87.8% and the Black Sea share had fallen to just 5.1%, with a single wheat cargo of 7,400 tonnes shipped from Tuapse to Egypt in the entire week. “Tricky to find anyone who will go,” one Egyptian source said of sourcing Black Sea-origin wheat on a CIF basis. \nBy late September, the Joint War Committee had expanded the Listed Area of the Black Sea under enhanced risk, though sources were divided on how much further that would move freight rates given how much of the risk premium was already priced in. Some tonnage was reported repositioning out of the CVB ports entirely, drawn by higher rates available elsewhere and the accumulating difficulties of operating in the region at all.\n\nTwo markets, one Atlantic \nNone of this shows up as a single market-wide freight story. It shows up as two: an ordinary Atlantic Panamax market tracking trade flows and bunker rates in single-digit percentage moves, and a Black Sea market where the strikes have become the dominant price signal, pushing some routes up by triple digits in percentage terms over the same ten weeks. For buyers and shippers watching only the headline Atlantic Panamax number, the underlying reshaping of Black Sea trade routes, and the cost of the strikes and war now baked into them, is easy to miss entirely. \nAuthor: Eoin Hughes (all figures and quotes drawn from his weekly Atlantic freight commentary, 15 Jul to 23 Sep 2026)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}