Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0759 GMT - The scope of China's newly announced mortgage subsidies likely disappointed the market, Julius Baer's Richard Tang says in a note. While the mortgage interest subsidy program was widely expected by the market, the actual scope likely falls short of expectations, as the program is restricted to a small subset of housing types and transactions, he writes. The analyst estimates that only 20%-25% of housing deals will qualify, mostly in lower-tier cities, resulting in marginal effect to investments. "For the equity market, we believe the absence of a policy surprise may extend the weak market sentiment and a year-end rally is much less likely to happen," he adds. Julius Baer continues to favor artificial-intelligence hardware and dividend stocks in China.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0755 GMT - Axis Bank shares reverse opening losses, with the lender's shares last 2.0% higher at 1,233.50 rupees on the BSE. The stock's gain comes after the launch of Apple Pay services in India, where customers can add Axis Bank-issued Visa and Mastercard credit cards to iPhones, iPads and Apple Watches. The move marks Apple's entry into one of the world's fastest-growing markets for cashless transactions. A large, still-growing working age population and ongoing urbanization support multiyear demand growth in the country, says Franklin Templeton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0749 GMT - Liontrust Asset Management remains undervalued as the fund management company continues to proactively diversify, Berenberg analysts write. The group's purchase of Hawksmoor's fund management and model portfolio services business seems to be another attractive acquisition, the analysts say. The transaction will add 1.9 billion pounds of assets, with expected operating margins of 60% on 5 million pounds of revenue. Consensus expectations for Liontrust are likely to increase by around 8% next year, with a minimal impact this year, Berenberg says. The stock is trading at a lowly multiple, Berenberg says, as it increases its target price to 390 pence from 360 pence. Shares are up 11% to 289.50 pence. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0717 GMT - Hong Kong's retail sector recovery, likely underpinned by rebounding consumption, has more room to run, say DBS Group Research analysts in a note. The city's retail sales grew 8.9% in the first seven months of the year, boosted by local and tourist consumption. This recovery could drive rent increases, they say. The retail recovery could be sustained thanks to Hong Kong's continued efforts to attract overseas talent and a stronger yuan propping up mainland China tourist spending, they add. The analysts expect Hongkong Land and Hysan Development to benefit from the stronger sales, supported by tenant-mix optimization and asset rejuvenation moves. Wharf Real Estate Investment is also poised to gain from tourist spending growth at a retail asset. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0714 GMT - Bitcoin falls as continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict keeps investors cautious over risky assets. President Trump denied reports that the U.S. offered Iran sanctions relief in exchange for Tehran showing concrete steps regarding its nuclear program. Bitcoin drops 0.6% to $83,075, LSEG data show. Upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data will be key for broader risk appetite and bitcoin, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. "If yields fall and exchange-traded fund demand remains positive, bitcoin could find stronger support above $83,000; if inflation stays firm and real yields remain elevated, the market may continue to struggle for momentum despite its improving institutional base," he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0700 GMT - Liontrust Asset Management's latest acquisition brings a complementary, valuation-led investment style into the business, Panmure Liberum analysts write. The U.K. fund management group's purchase of Hawksmoor's fund management and model portfolio services business extends Liontrust's reach into the financial adviser channel, the analysts add. "The operational platform Liontrust has built over the past few years means the acquired business will slot in at an attractive margin, another sign that the investment in that platform is paying off," Panmure Liberum says. Liontrust is focused on what it can control and isn't waiting for flows to turn, the analysts note. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0113 GMT - Navigator Global Investments' sale of an equity stake in Invictus Capital prompts little reaction from its bull at Macquarie. The transaction will generate initial proceeds of at least US$40 million for the Australian alternative-asset manager. However, a note from one of the investment bank's analysts highlights how hard it is to assess the full value of a broader transaction that includes earnouts, two continuing income streams related to Invictus, and a remaining ownership stake that will generate earnings through FY 2031. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating on the stock and a target price of 3.24 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.4% at A$2.46. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1650 GMT - While analysts say that a positive sentiment around bitcoin is starting to fade, at least in the short-term, data shows that investors are accumulating long-facing options at over $90,000. Other popular targets include strike prices of $95,000 and $100,000, according to data from Deribit. Fund traders are continuing to return to bitcoin ETFs as well, with days of consecutive inflows now up to 8 days - with an inflow of $31 million seen yesterday, according to data from Coinglass. Bitcoin is currently trading lower, down 0.3% to $83,238. Ethereum is flat at $2,682, XRP is up 1.5% $1.52, and solana is down 0.2% to $118.57. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1604 GMT - Fair Isaac is dealing with two key negative developments, Deutsche Bank says in a note. Analyst Faiza Alwy says FHFA director Bill Pulte indicated that competitor VantageScore's 20 point discount to FICO has been removed and both scores will now be treated the same by the GSEs. "This would likely in and of itself result in higher number of mortgages that will see favorable pricing with VS4 vs. FICO Classic," Alwy says. Additionally, Rocket Mortgage said it will become the first mortgage lender to use VantageScore 4.0 as its preferred credit scoring model for all eligible loans, and during 4Q will default to VS4 for mortgages delivered to the federal housing agencies, VA home loans and any other eligible mortgages, according to Alwy. Fair Isaac tumbles 27%. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1534 GMT - Saudi Arabia leads major Gulf stocks lower Tuesday, with the Tadawul All Share Index falling 1.2%. Qatar's QE Index loses 1.1%, Abu Dhabi's benchmark index declines 0.3% and the Dubai Financial Market General Index slips 0.2%. Risks from the Middle East conflict remain elevated despite recovering regional oil flows. S&P Global Market Intelligence says its base case no longer assumes a clear end to the war, with Gulf exports likely to fluctuate as security conditions affect ships' willingness to transit the Strait of Hormuz. It expects only gradual improvement through 2027, with energy, freight, insurance and logistics costs remaining elevated. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1501 GMT - Buying a new home is now typically a better value than an existing home nationwide, Zillow says. New homes now sell for a median of $205 per square foot, below the $212 median for existing homes, according to a Zillow study. The relative discount for new homes is usually biggest where construction surged during the pandemic boom, particularly in the Sun Belt. This reverses the trend in recent years, when new homes sold for more per square foot than existing homes in 77 of 84 months from 2018 to 2024. Where construction has boomed and inventory is plentiful, discounts run deeper as increased competition gives builders more reason to offer incentives. Where inventory remains locked up and new construction faces more hurdles, builder offerings lean toward the higher end and carry a premium, Zillow says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1124 GMT - Banco Santander faces a key catalyst in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election this weekend, which is increasingly viewed as a referendum on the country's fiscal policy, Jefferies analysts write. Polling data suggests a statistical tie between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, meaning a second-round runoff next month is the most likely outcome, the analysts say. A Lula victory would reinforce Brazil's focus on state-led growth, while a Bolsonaro administration would favor fiscal discipline and private sector-led growth. Brazil is Santander's second-largest market and contributed 16% of earnings in 2025. "Investors generally view a Bolsonaro victory the more constructive outcome for Santander, as a more benign fiscal backdrop could support lower rates and a faster easing cycle," Jefferies says. Shares are up 1.9%.

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