Oil exports from the Gulf have recovered to prewar levels in recent days as producers grow more adept at navigating the war in the Middle East. That hasn't done much to bring down oil prices.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, markets are still nervous about dwindling oil stockpiles and the potential for long-term damage to energy infrastructure if the war escalates again. That is keeping oil prices high, particularly for contracts that allow for quick delivery: For example, Brent crude for delivery in October is trading at around $120 a barrel.

Goldman analysts still see prices easing by year-end, citing the "remarkable adaptation" of the oil market.

-- The bank's latest estimates show that oil exports from the Gulf jumped to about 23.3 million barrels per day in the last week, above the 2025 average of 23.1 million barrels per day. Its data includes so-called dark transits, where tankers turn off transponders to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

-- Exports from both Saudi Arabia and and the U.A.E. have surpassed their 2025 averages, according to Goldman.

-- Shipments of crucial refined products like diesel have recovered, but remain at about half their 2025 levels, Goldman said.