Fed's Williams Hints Next Rate Increase Can Wait

Dow Jones
Yesterday

New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve needn't rush to continue raising interest rates after officials voted through the first rate increase in three years last week.

Inflation remains too high, and another rate increase "late this year" might be appropriate to restrain rising prices, Williams said. But for now, the Fed can likely take time to review additional data before tightening policy further, he said.

"With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency," Williams said in a speech in Buffalo, N.Y. "We have time to gather more information."

The remarks from a key member of the Fed's policy committee could reset expectations for the central bank's next move at an October meeting four weeks away. With two more Fed meetings on the calendar this year-in October and December-investors have been weighing whether to anticipate a rate increase at one meeting, the other, or both.

Policymakers' forecasts at least one further rate increase this year, and a more hawkish tone from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, had left many traders betting after last week's meeting that a follow-up rate increase could be on the way as soon as October.

Before Williams spoke on Tuesday, futures markets showed roughly 70% odds that rates would rise again next month, to a range of 4% to 4.25%. The comments from Williams, who serves as the vice chair of the Fed's policy committee, suggest he isn't convinced the Fed must act again so quickly.

The Fed's preferred inflation metric, which hit 3.7% in its most recent reading for July, has been drifting well above the central bank's 2% target for more than five years. Williams argued, however, that some underlying inflation pressures are easing on their own. Housing prices, a major spending category for consumers, have decelerated, he noted, and though the labor market remains solid, wage increases don't seem to be pushing up consumer prices.

Political sensitivities could give Fed officials another reason to hold off. Raising rates six days before the midterm elections might be awkward for a central bank that doesn't see particular urgency to move interest rates sharply higher.

Other Fed officials who, like Williams, typically vote with the Fed's policy consensus, have signaled in recent days that they believe rates should rise further, without laying out a particular timeline.

 

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