Hang Seng Upgrades Hong Kong 2026 GDP Forecast to 4.4% on AI Export Boom

MT Newswires Live
Yesterday

Hong Kong's growing shipments of artificial intelligence technologies have bolstered the city's economic growth outlook for the year.

Hang Seng Bank raised its 2026 gross domestic product forecast to 4.4% from its previous outlook of 4.0%, according to a research note published Wednesday.

"The upgrade partly reflects stronger-than-expected growth in H1 and we expect the Hong Kong economy to build on this momentum in H2 and beyond, supported by further AI-driven trade expansion," Hang Seng's Chief Economist Kelvin Lau and Senior Economist Felix Tong said.

Hong Kong's official GDP rose 4.3% year over year in the second quarter, largely supported by strong external trade driven by global demand for AI-related electronic products.

Exports in July and August -- led by electrical machinery, office machines, and data-processing equipment -- jumped 51.8% year over year, accelerating from 39.1% growth in the first half, the bank said.

Despite the upgrade, the outlook implies a mild moderation in momentum. Hang Seng expects second-half economic growth to ease to 3.8%, and slow further to 2.8% in 2027.

Domestically, private consumption expenditure moderated to 2.8% in the second quarter from 4.9% in the first quarter. Retail sales growth has also cooled, with July retail sales easing to 4.5% year over year, down from a 7.1% average in the second quarter.

Data from the Census and Statistics Department confirmed the cooling trend, showing June retail sales growth moderated to 4.6% from 7.9% in May. However, the luxury segment remained a bright spot, with sales of jewelry, watches, and valuable gifts jumping 20.1% in June.

To sustain its nascent domestic recovery, Hang Seng noted the city will need to attract more visitors, expand its labor force, and boost private investment.

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