The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1117 ET - The Sept. 30 quarterly stocks report from the USDA "looks quiet on paper," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. But while forecasts for the report are relatively steady, the price action on the CBOT following the report may be strong. That's because of several factors seen heading into the report, explains Wiesemeyer. "The September report rarely lands on USDA, its errors carry straight into new-crop supply, and funds are positioned near a record long," he says. CBOT grains are lower, with corn down 1.9%, soybeans down 2.6%, and wheat dropping 2.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1030 ET - Cattle slaughter fell to a non-holiday record low last week, at 484,000 head, says AgResource in a note. This supported higher cut-out prices for cattle, but that doesn't seem to be enough to give cattle a boost in early trade. Cattle instead appears to be locked in the negative momentum seen across commodities, including grain futures. Livestock traders are looking for some sort of sign of cattle beginning a prolonged rebound. "Last week's chart gaps likely need to be closed before a meaningful recovery can get underway," says AgResource. Live cattle falls 0.1%, and lean hogs drop 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1029 ET - Souring sentiment across markets include grain futures, with row crops on the CBOT down in early trading. "Grains are falling like a hot knife thru butter...so much for the 'the U.S. farmer will be very happy'," says Gary Sandlund of Futures International in a note. Sandlund attributes the weakness in grains to a general lack of news out of last week's U.S.-China summit. One of the only tangible outcomes from the meeting was the U.S. and China agreeing to a $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction. CBOT corn falls 1.6%, soybeans drop 2.6%, and wheat is down 2.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1024 ET - Canadian miners are the main drag on the TSX as the price of gold tumbles to seven-week low. Higher fuel costs raise concerns of another U.S. Fed rate hike to temper inflation, driving down the price precious metals while the price of crude rises. Gold falls 3.1% to $4,188 an ounce and silver is down 4.2% to around $62 an ounce. Among the biggest decliners of the session were AbraSilver Resources, Aris Mining, and K92 Mining as well as larger players in the space such as Agnico Eagle, Lundin Gold and Eldorado Gold. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1012 ET - Natural gas extends a pullback it began late last week, with the shockwave from a pipeline malfunction in West Virginia easing. "With a less complicated repair job, supply flows should return to normal levels within a few days," says the Hightower Report in a note. Mild weather in the U.S. is allowing natural gas prices to ease, the firm adds. "Overall, demand for power plants is expected to pull back mildly, weighing on natural gas prices," says the firm. Natural gas prices are down 3.5% to $3.083 per mmBtu. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1005 ET - Crude oil is up toward $95 a barrel as the sentiment around a potential ceasefire in the Middle East conflict has soured. "The market rebounding once again as the prospects of a deal are looking unlikely," says Scott Shelton of TP ICAP in a note. Oil prices jumped after President Trump rejected an Iranian truce proposal that would have opened the Strait of Hormuz for seven days. However, both WTI light crude oil and Brent crude have pared gains in early trading, with light crude up 1.9% to $94.19 a barrel and Brent crude up 2.1% to $106.48 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0849 ET - Canadian railways for a fourth straight month notched a rise in carloadings in July as strong growth in grains more than made up for large declines in coal and potash. Statistics Canada data shows railways transported 31.7 million metric tons of freight for the month, up 2.6% on-year. Traffic hit the third-highest level on record for the month of July, exceeding the five-year average for the month of 30.1 million tons. Freight loadings from connections with U.S. railways rose 11.1% on-year to 3.8 million tons, which may partly reflect re-routing of some rail traffic via American connections amid wildfires in Northern Ontario and British Columbia during the month, the data agency says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0605 ET - Palm oil ended lower in Asia. Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-25 period are estimated to be down 24% on month. Prices were likely weighed by Malaysia's sluggish export data and expectations of higher tropical oil output, Kenanga Futures analysts said in a note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery closed 9 ringgit lower at 4,663 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0455 ET - Mining stocks fall sharply, tracking a downturn in metals prices. Higher oil prices and strong industrial activity data in the U.S. reinforced expectations central bank policy rates will be higher for longer, ANZ analysts say, in turn weighing on non-yielding metals. Gold and sliver contracts fall by 3% and 5% in New York, respectively, while London copper futures fall by 1.8%. Silver miner Fresnillo falls 5.8%, leading the fallers in London's FTSE 100. Gold miners Endeavour Mining and Antofagasta drop 5.1% and 2.6%, while copper miner Anglo American drops 2.2%. Luxembourg-based steel group Arcelor Mittal shares drop 2.2%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0348 ET - European gas prices rise more than 2% after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal, fueling concerns over prolonged disruptions to LNG flows ahead of winter. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 2.4% to 73.63 euros a megawatt-hour. "Lower Norwegian pipeline flows due to maintenance and subdued LNG traffic through Hormuz continue to tighten the market," analysts at ANZ say. "Meanwhile, a rebound in Chinese LNG imports highlights the risk of stronger Asian competition for cargo, leaving European gas prices vulnerable to winter demand and further supply shocks." EU storage levels are currently 70% full. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0345 ET - Gold prices drop as rising oil prices reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further next month, a move that would put pressure on the nonyielding metal. In early European trading, New York gold futures are down 3% to $4,189.40 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.2% at 101.14, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. Market watchers expect rising yields and a strong dollar to keep the macro backdrop challenging for gold. However, "it is also worth noting that much of the selling occurred during Asian hours, potentially pointing to profit-taking by Chinese investors ahead of the Golden Week holiday starting Thursday," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike in October. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2323 ET - Iron ore falls in early Asian trading. Prices are likely weighed by weak steel demand, ANZ Research says in a note. The China Iron and Steel Association has urged mills to curb production and draw down inventories to protect margins and limit excess supply, the team adds. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 1.05% at 704.0 yuan a ton.