The great bond market selloff of 2026 is fast approaching a new milestone.

The bid yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached as high as 5.272% Monday, according to Tradeweb. That was a fresh 19-year high but-even more notably-very close to a 24-year high.

The number to watch is 5.303%. The 10-year bid yield hit that level on June 12, 2007-also at a time of high interest rates and rising oil prices. If the yield climbs above that level, it would be the highest since May 2002 when yields were still in the midst of a long decline from their double-digit heights in the 1980s.

Yields have been choppy today, as traders react to conflicting headlines about the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Bond investors are worried that a sustained conflict with Iran would keep energy prices elevated long enough that it would start feeding more broadly into inflation and push the Federal Reserve to raise rates more aggressively than previously anticipated.