The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1515 ET [Dow Jones]--Front-month crude-oil futures settled trading up 0.2% to $92.60 a barrel. That's after crude oil jumped to up around 3% in morning trade. This makes it 2 of the past 3 trading sessions that crude oil has finished trading higher. Putting pressure on crude-oil futures was the reopening of the East-West pipeline by Saudi Arabia, bringing on the pipeline for the first time since Sept. 10, when the pipeline suffered damage from drone attacks. Front-month Brent crude oil settled up 0.9% to $105.28 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1503 ET [Dow Jones]--Natural-gas futures finished trading down 6.1% to $3 per mmBtu. It's the largest decline in natural-gas futures since July, the second straight session that natural-gas futures sank, reversing big gains posted last week in response to a disruption of a pipeline in West Virginia. "Today's selling is attributed to profit-taking and several bearish factors in play," says NatGasWeather.com in a note. Mild temperatures in the U.S. are also affecting retail demand for natural gas. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1114 ET - - Saudi Arabia's financing needs could more than double its prewar plan as a temporary oil-price cushion fades and the conflict weighs on second-half revenues, Citi says. The bank expects a 2.4% GDP contraction and a budget deficit of SAR395 billion ($105.3 billion), or 7.7% of GDP, this year, compared with consensus expectations for modest growth and a deficit below 5%. High prices helped second-quarter oil receipts rise 22% on year despite sharply lower production, but Citi expects the lagged impact of weaker output to weigh on receipts in the second half. It estimates gross financing needs at around SAR445 billion, versus the prewar plan of SAR217 billion, though much of the requirement has already been secured. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1108 ET -- Saudi Arabia's recession remains overwhelmingly an oil-volume shock, with the broader economy showing relative resilience, Citi says. GDP contracted 4.8% on quarter in the second quarter after falling 1.4% in the first, but oil activity plunged 21.6% while non-oil activity slipped just 0.4%. Non-oil activity was still up 0.9% on year, and the kingdom's PMI rose to 53.8 in August, its fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. Citi expects overall GDP to contract 2.4% this year, but says the economy's recovery depends critically on restoring crude production and securing export routes. The budget is less vulnerable to prolonged export disruption than the broader economy, as higher oil prices can offset lost revenue from lower volumes even as reduced production weighs on GDP, Citi says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1024 ET - Canadian miners are the main drag on the TSX as the price of gold tumbles to seven-week low. Higher fuel costs raise concerns of another U.S. Fed rate hike to temper inflation, driving down the price precious metals while the price of crude rises. Gold falls 3.1% to $4,188 an ounce and silver is down 4.2% to around $62 an ounce. Among the biggest decliners of the session were AbraSilver Resources, Aris Mining, and K92 Mining as well as larger players in the space such as Agnico Eagle, Lundin Gold and Eldorado Gold. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1012 ET - Natural gas extends a pullback it began late last week, with the shockwave from a pipeline malfunction in West Virginia easing. "With a less complicated repair job, supply flows should return to normal levels within a few days," says the Hightower Report in a note. Mild weather in the U.S. is allowing natural gas prices to ease, the firm adds. "Overall, demand for power plants is expected to pull back mildly, weighing on natural gas prices," says the firm. Natural gas prices are down 3.5% to $3.083 per mmBtu. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1005 ET - Crude oil is up toward $95 a barrel as the sentiment around a potential ceasefire in the Middle East conflict has soured. "The market rebounding once again as the prospects of a deal are looking unlikely," says Scott Shelton of TP ICAP in a note. Oil prices jumped after President Trump rejected an Iranian truce proposal that would have opened the Strait of Hormuz for seven days. However, both WTI light crude oil and Brent crude have pared gains in early trading, with light crude up 1.9% to $94.19 a barrel and Brent crude up 2.1% to $106.48 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0900 ET - The global bond selloff resumes, keeping Treasury yields near multiyear highs, as hopes for an imminent solution for Hormuz and the oil trade fade away. President Trump rejects a ceasefire proposal and Iran is under pressure to return to the negotiation table. The impasse sends oil up, fanning inflation fears. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be stable tomorrow, according to WSJ consensus. On Wednesday, PCE inflation is forecast to remain hot, while payrolls are expected to shrink Friday. The 10-year yield is at 5.215%, near its June 2007 high. The two-year is at 4.912%, both higher than Friday but off overnight highs. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0824 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, are likely to remain high during the remainder of 2026, ending the year at 5.15%, before falling to 4.70% by the end of 2027, Morgan Stanley's Fabio Bassanin says in a note. The bank assumes energy prices will move lower by year-end, allowing markets to cut back expectations for interest-rate hikes, he says. Brent crude oil is last up 2.6% at $107.01 a barrel. Investors price in an 83% chance of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November, and fully expect four quarter-point BOE rate increases by July 2027, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields last trade at 5.393%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0752 ET - RWE's outperformance against peers is set to continue, underpinned by a strong balance sheet and supportive demand for power, JPMorgan analysts write. The energy company's diverse portfolio of renewables offers positive exposure to gas and power prices, commodity price volatility, and long-term contracted sources of earnings and cash flows, the analysts say. JPM has an outperform rating on the stock and 68.50 euros target price. Shares are up 0.6% at 55.19 euros, and are 27% higher year to date. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
0641 ET - The dollar is unlikely to maintain its recent strong momentum unless Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is much better than expected, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. "While it might be too early for a break lower in oil prices, news of the U.S. and Iran working on a deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz could prevent another jump higher." That could stabilize government bonds and risk sentiment, he says. Moreover, the dollar looks expensive, according to ING's short-term valuation models. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 101.101 but a pullback to 100.50 would be more coherent with fundamentals, he says. ING expects this week's jobs data to leave markets guessing about another U.S. interest-rate increase in October. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0628 ET - A potential U.S. diesel export ban could initially push domestic diesel prices lower, but the longer it lasts, the more likely it is to drive up prices of other refined products, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank estimates U.S. retail diesel prices could fall by around $0.25 a gallon for each week of the ban while storage capacity remains available. However, as diesel inventories approach storage limits, U.S. refiners would likely need to cut output, reducing gasoline production and pushing U.S. gasoline prices higher by around $0.30 a gallon a week. "The longer a diesel export ban lasts, the more disruptive it would likely be," analysts at Goldman say.