Investors have become concerned about consumer stocks as they worry that higher interest rates will hurt shopping demand. Some stocks are too attractive to ignore, while others are best avoided.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary exchange-traded fund, which strips out the outsized effect of Amazon.com and Tesla, is down about 11% from a multi-month high in August, while the S&P 500 is down only 1%. The issue: The market is reflecting an increasing risk that consumer companies' earnings will disappoint as consumer demand could take a hit from rising interest rates.
So which consumer stocks are likely to be in for a rough ride for some time, and which are set to recover? Finding those that are stabilizing could be a good start.
TJX Cos. is one that has stabilized. The stock dropped as much as 24% from its $161 early-August level, including a post-earnings decline, saw buyers come in at $122 in mid September, and now sits at just over $130. The stock likely doesn't have much more downside if rates are finished surging and the earnings picture doesn't worsen.
Earnings looks fine. Sure, second quarter same-store-sales growth for Marmaxx, the combined segment of Marshalls and TJ Maxx stores, grew only 1% year over year, missing estimates. But long-time CEO Ernie Herman said on the earnings call that Marmaxx same-store sales had already seen improvement in August.
TJX tends to execute well, so the coming quarters could be strong. It has often taken market share over the years, and it has beaten analyst's same-store sales estimates in 8 of the last 10 quarters. Analysts expect almost 3.2% same-store sales growth for the second half of the year. Management talked about the growth on the earnings call as coming from larger basket sizes and more customer transactions in many areas of the business.
These trends can easily continue even if consumer spending growth slows given that TJX is an off-price retailer. When people have less money to spend, they're more inclined to trade down to cheaper options.
"A favorable off-price buying landscape continues to enable TJX to effectively meet traffic and demand," writes Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey.
Combine that with moderate growth of store locations, and total revenue should grow 5% in the second half to $34.5 billion, according to FactSet.
It is therefore reasonable to expect earnings per share to grow for the long-term. With profit margins stable, analysts expect 11% annual EPS growth through 2028, as the company uses most of its free cash flow to repurchase shares.
Similarly, shares of off-priced retailer Burlington Stores look interesting. The stock fell as much as 38% from early August to its mid-September low of $227. Buyers swiftly came in, and the stock is now at about $266.
In travel, look at Booking Holdings. The stock fell as much as 27% from August to the mid September bottom of $155 and is now at about $162.
It's screamingly cheap at just over 13 times expected next 12 months earnings, well below the S&P 500's just over 19 times. When the stock is more in favor, it often trades a touch above the market.
That's because the growth story is strong. With its expected $203 billion in 2026 gross bookings (the amount of user spend on the website before Booking takes its cut from reservations), it is the largest online travel agency in the world. It's using its knowledge of its user base and artificial intelligence to continue to take more of traveler's spend around the globe. That's why EPS can grow 17% annually through 2030.
Avoid the smaller and more U.S-focused Expedia. Although it is growing, the market is less confident about the stock in the near term. It is currently less than two dollars above its mid-September low, signaling weak demand for the shares and potential downside if there are disappointments in travel spending or earnings.
Also avoid DoorDash, which has bounced only 3% from its low-far less than Booking, TJX, and Burlington, which have rebounded between 4% and 17%. Instacart has seen an even smaller bounce, at just over 1% off its low.