1124 GMT - Banco Santander faces a key catalyst in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election this weekend, which is increasingly viewed as a referendum on the country's fiscal policy, Jefferies analysts write. Polling data suggests a statistical tie between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, meaning a second-round runoff next month is the most likely outcome, the analysts say. A Lula victory would reinforce Brazil's focus on state-led growth, while a Bolsonaro administration would favor fiscal discipline and private sector-led growth. Brazil is Santander's second-largest market and contributed 16% of earnings in 2025. "Investors generally view a Bolsonaro victory the more constructive outcome for Santander, as a more benign fiscal backdrop could support lower rates and a faster easing cycle," Jefferies says. Shares are up 1.9%.