0452 GMT - CSL still generates caution at Macquarie despite the stock's recent rerate. Analysts at the investment bank keep a neutral rating on the Australia-based pharmaceutical company, observing that a 58% share-price rise over three months came despite earnings downgrades. They think that near-term catalysts will probably support the current rerating, but tell clients in a note that they are cautious on the medium-term outlook due to uncertainty over the impact on demand of complement-inhibitor therapies, albumin collections, and the process to appoint a new permanent CEO. Macquarie raises its target price on the stock 31% to 174.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 1.4% at A$184.25. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0441 GMT - REA Group's acquisition of a stake in Ireland-based marketplace operator Distilled is received more constructively by UBS analysts than previous M&A efforts. The analysts like the slower approach to international expansion, even if the News Corp-controlled real-estate advertiser is paying a premium price. Less positively, they tell clients in a note that the move means less chance of near-term capital returns from REA, which failed with a 2024 attempt to take full ownership of U.K.-based Rightmove. UBS keeps a neutral rating on the stock and cuts its target 7.3% to 164.00 Australian dollars. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0427 GMT - Megaport's new contracts further support the view at Jefferies that the compute-as-a-service provider is one of Australia's highest-leverage AI-infrastructure exposures. Analyst Roger Samuel lists improving contract economics, reduced funding risks, and growing visibility over future earnings among the attractions at Megaport, which he continues to rate as a buy. Samuel tells clients in a note that the company's core network business is also doing well, with annual recurring revenue up by 4.5% in the two months through Aug. 31 and net retention rates at their highest since 2023. Jefferies lifts its target price by 5.8% to 27.50 Australian dollars. Shares are down 1.2% at A$20.375. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0142 GMT - Consensus production forecasts for Liontown are set to be downgraded following a final investment decision on the Kathleen Valley mine expansion, says CLSA. "Today's announcement implies 12%/11% downgrades to consensus production forecasts over FY28/29," the broker says. CLSA says it was cautious heading into the approval because of what it says were "overly aggressive ramp/recovery consensus expectations at KV, particularly in FY28/29." The longer-term outlook--post FY30--is more positive, however, implying 7% upside to consensus forecasts, CLSA says. Shares are up 3.7% at A$0.985. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0140 GMT - REA Group's bull at Jefferies expects the Australian real-estate advertiser to divest Distilled's auto business if it eventually takes full control of the Ireland-based classifieds group. Analyst Roger Samuel likes REA's acquisition of an initial 35% stake as another growth opportunity, and approves of the phased approach to international expansion. He sees space for News Corp-controlled REA to increase the take rate at Distilled's Daft.ie property business. However, Samuel says in a note that the monetization rate at Distilled's auto vertical is lower than in property and a sale is likely. Jefferies keeps a buy rating on the stock and trims its target 0.5% to 194.00 Australian dollars. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0139 GMT - Maiden output from Woodside Energy's Scarborough natural-gas project in Australia is the major swing factor for the company's 2H production, Macquarie says. Woodside has signaled it will ship a first cargo of liquefied natural gas from Scarborough some time between October and December. Macquarie forecasts production of some 900,000 tons of LNG from Scarborough in 4Q, but acknowledges limited visibility currently. Macquarie has a neutral call on Woodside and raises its price target by 1.5% to A$32.90/share to reflect stronger oil and LNG commodities price forecasts. Woodside is unchanged at A$31.48. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0136 GMT - Amplitude Energy's decision to move ahead with the East Coast Supply Project represents another positive step, says Euroz Hartleys. The final investment decision on the ECSP is "a major derisking milestone," analyst Declan Bonnick says. Amplitude has also provided greater visibility around the scope of the project, the development schedule and costs. First output of natural gas from the ECSP is forecast in 2028. "The A$190 million-A$210 million development cost remains consistent with prior capex expectations and appears in-line with consensus," Euroz Hartleys says. It has a buy call and A$2.80/share price target on Amplitude, which is down 1.8% at A$1.685. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0135 GMT - REA Group's CEO appears to be sticking to the acquisition playbook he followed with his previous employer, Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed says. The Australian real-estate advertiser's acquisition of a 35% stake in Ireland-based marketplace operator Distilled looks to Ahmed like the approach that CEO McIntyre took at CAR Group. Ahmed explains in a note that an initial minority stake in an international business could be followed by majority ownership or a full acquisition. If News Corp-controlled REA heads down this path, Ahmed expects it to eventually spin out Distilled's non-property verticals. Citi keeps a neutral rating on the stock and cuts its target price 14% to 165.00 Australian dollars. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0113 GMT - Navigator Global Investments' sale of an equity stake in Invictus Capital prompts little reaction from its bull at Macquarie. The transaction will generate initial proceeds of at least US$40 million for the Australian alternative-asset manager. However, a note from one of the investment bank's analysts highlights how hard it is to assess the full value of a broader transaction that includes earnouts, two continuing income streams related to Invictus, and a remaining ownership stake that will generate earnings through FY 2031. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating on the stock and a target price of 3.24 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.4% at A$2.46. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0042 GMT - Megaport's bull at Macquarie recommends investors drop any resistance to the compute-as-a-service provider's strong momentum. One of the investment bank's analysts tells clients in a note that the Australian company's reallocation of pooled processors to a new contracts highlights management's focus on returns. They explain that the customer's A$282 million prepayment gives Megaport a capex payback period of about eight months, compared with between 16 and 22 months for pooled capacity. This reduces utilization and funding risk, the analyst adds. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating on the stock and raises its target price 8.4% to 34.70 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.5% at A$20.525. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0529 GMT - Goodman's bull at Citi sees no impact on its short- or medium-term outlook from the Australian developer's decision to axe plans for a suburban Sydney data center. Analyst Howard Penny acknowledges that scrapping the Lane Cove development is incrementally negative for sentiment, but reminds clients in a note that it has no impact on Goodman's work in progress, secured pipeline or near-term earnings. More important in Penny's view are factors including a 37% upgrade to Goodman's work in progress, its 20-year hyperscale lease in Tokyo, and welcoming of a new sovereign partner via a recent US$455 million capital raise. Citi has a buy rating on the stock, which is down 1.9% at 25.79 Australian dollars. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0516 GMT - UBS upgrades its long-term forecast on iron ore to US$93/metric ton, from US$85/ton before. As a result, the bank raises share-price targets on miners including BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue. Its long-term price forecast--which is 12% above consensus--reflects a new phase for iron-ore demand, as China pivots to manufacturing and exports from construction, and steel demand from the Global South rises, UBS says. "The rise of the Global South and China's manufacturing [and] export industries should more than offset China's construction steel demand decline, resulting in global steel demand growing through 2035," it says. UBS raises its target on BHP to A$61/share from A$59/share prior. Its target on Rio Tinto increases to A$178/share from A$177/share.