Tesla has a big week. It’s slated to unveil the latest version of its futuristic Roadster on Thursday. After that, it will report third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Friday.
Investors might be feeling a little antsy. They sold the stock on Monday as they pondered what a weak Chinese car market means for the company.
Shares of the EV maker dropped 3.9%, closing at $357.45, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.
The drop came after JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta cut his third-quarter delivery estimate to 482,000 vehicles from 516,000 vehicles, citing weaker-than-expected deliveries in China and the U.S. China has been a problem for most auto makers in 2026, amid slowing demand, less government support, and brutal price competition.
Gupta’s new number is relatively high. Overall, Wall Street projects 463,000 vehicles sold in the third quarter, according to FactSet, down from about 497,000 cars sold in the third quarter of 2025. The prior year’s quarter was boosted by the September expiration of the $7,500 Federal EV purchase tax credit. Buyers rushed to buy and keep that benefit.
It isn’t unusual for analysts to trim numbers ahead of a report. Gupta isn’t the only one cutting forecasts. “We forecast Q3 deliveries of approximately 446,500 vehicles, down 7% sequentially and 10% year over year, and modestly below FactSet consensus,” wrote StoneX analyst Mickey Legg in a preview report. He moved his third-quarter earnings per share estimate to 45 cents from 58 cents.
Heading into the week, Tesla stock was up about 5% over the past month. Several factors have helped boost stocks, beyond the Roadster and any expectations for a solid delivery number.
Tesla introduced its Cybercab robo-taxi into its self-driving taxi service earlier this month. And SpaceX stock was also up about 5% over the past month, mirroring Tesla shares’ move. Oftentimes, the two stocks trade together. Many investors and Wall Street analysts believe a merger between the two is inevitable, with SpaceX likely paying a premium to Tesla’s current stock price to combine the companies in an all-stock deal.
Gupta’s numbers would be a positive surprise, relative to the FactSet consensus. Still, he rates Tesla stock Hold and cut his price target to $415 from $445. Legg predicts a delivery miss. He rates shares Buy and has a $475 price target for the stock.
Whatever happens to the stock on Friday, investors can remember that car deliveries just aren’t the focus for Tesla analysts or investors these days. They are focused on AI efforts tied to robo-taxis and robots. Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, but scaling the service has been slow. Tesla is also building capacity to mass-produce its humanoid robot, Optimus. Investors are waiting to see what the latest version of Optimus can do.
Given the focus, a delivery miss might not hurt the stock as much as in prior years, when EVs were the focus. (Tesla stock fell after strong second-quarter deliveries.) Cars are still Tesla’s largest business, though, and help fund the company’s EV ambitions.