Treasury Yields Rise Amid U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Stalemate

Dow Jones
Sep 28
 
 

U.S. Treasury yields rose in Asian trade on Monday as yet another setback in efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher.

Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal.

"Unfortunately we are in a one factor world right now with oil prices impacting rates and rates being the main driver of all asset classes," said Mohit Kumar, global economist at Jefferies, in a note.

The stalling pushed oil prices higher, with front-month Brent rising 3.4% to $107.91 per barrel. Higher oil prices keep inflationary pressures intense which in turn reinforces market expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Money markets currently price in a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate raise by the Fed in October.

"In our view the Treasury market is going through a light buyer's strike," Citi strategist Jason Williams said in a note.

Strong purchasing managers data last week and hawkish Federal Reserve speeches are "likely keeping buyers at bay," he said.

Treasury yields hovered close to their recent multiyear highs, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 3 basis points at 5.210%, according to Tradeweb.

This week could bring some respite to Treasurys, according to Williams, given the lack of issuance. "So far in 2026, Treasurys have tended to sell off more so on auction weeks than no supply weeks," he said.

J.P. Morgan strategists, nevertheless, stick to their bearish view on U.S. Treasury duration given coming labor-market report and technical factors, but said their bearish bias wasn't as strong as it has been in recent weeks.

 
 

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