Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 28

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0816 GMT - Indonesia's move to lower the minimum share price to 1 rupiah from 50 rupiah is likely to have limited impact on liquidity for stocks where investor demand remains weak, Capital Economics' Gareth Leather says. The change should improve price discovery by allowing stocks previously stuck at the 50 rupiah floor to adjust to market-clearing levels, he says. However, he says the move alone is unlikely to materially improve overall market liquidity or fully address concerns over Indonesia's market accessibility and transparency. Some stocks could also fall sharply below 50 rupiah as prices adjust to their underlying value, he adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0538 GMT - The week has started with a renewed advance in oil prices, as the U.S. and Iran are still talking with no resolution in sight. Bonds are under pressure, and multi-decade-high sovereign yields are making equity investors uncomfortable, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Yields at current levels are starting to look appealing--an appeal that could encourage outflows from equities and inflows into safer bonds, she says. On the other hand, investors are warming up to the idea that the global economy has now shifted to a structurally higher inflation regime, so it might be better to continue waiting, she adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0537 GMT - Being short in French government bonds is now a consensually owned position, while French spreads could narrow a bit once next year's budget is approved, RBC BlueBay Asset Management's Mark Dowding says. "Passage of a budget over the coming month could well see a retracement in spreads and we would favour a neutral stance here, looking to re-establish a short position at more favourable levels," the fixed income CIO says. The 10-year French OAT-German Bund yield spread widened above 110 bps lately, its widest since 2012. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0519 GMT - The Monetary Authority of Singapore's tightening cycle is likely over, after adjusting its policy twice this year, Capital Economics say in a note. August inflation figures showed price pressures are building, with core CPI rising to a nearly a two-year high. While food price inflation remains low, there is a growing chance that El Nino would disrupt food supplies and push up imported food costs, CE says. CE notes evidence of higher energy costs feeding through into broader price pressures or rising food costs could prompt more policy tightening.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0518 GMT - The U.S. dollar was a little higher in the Asian trading session as risk sentiment weakened. Brent oil increased as Iran said it would not soften its conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump rejected its proposal. The U.S dollar will likely continue to grind higher this week because of the strong U.S. economy, says Kristina Clifton, currency strategist at CBA. The U.S. Dollar Index could even set a new year-to-date high above 101.8 points this week, she adds. The next hurdle for traders is U.S. inflation data for August on Wednesday with the risk for a strong result, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0438 GMT - The Fed's September rate hike is unlikely to be the beginning a tightening cycle similar to that of 2022-23, despite the market's expectation for two more increases, says BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Chi Lo. Instead, it likely marks the start of "insurance hikes" aimed at bringing inflation back to target by reversing last year's three rate cuts, he says. Further hikes won't defuse the external shocks such as wars and energy price inflation, but they will dampen financial market concerns about the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility. The Fed can't keep looking through shocks that recur or fail to fade as hoped. However, by slowing activity elsewhere in the economy to cap inflationary pressures, more rate hikes may risk pushing the economy into stagflation. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0435 GMT - Japanese small- and mid-cap stocks are likely to outperform large-caps, Rakuten Securities' Masayuki Kubota says in a note. Japanese stocks remain undervalued and have considerable room to rise over the long run. In the near term, however, rising interest rates, renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns about excessive investment in artificial intelligence are likely to weigh more heavily on large-caps, the chief strategist says. Japanese small- and mid-cap stocks have lagged large-caps over the past five years, he adds. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 0.1% at 66277.11. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0422 GMT - QBE Insurance gets a new bull at CLSA on the Australian insurer's offshore exposure. Raising CLSA's recommendation on the stock to outperform from hold, one of the investment group's analysts tells clients in a note that they see more growth opportunities overseas than in domestic markets. "Our recommendation changes reflect a growing confidence in QBE's ability to navigate successfully a tricky global commercial insurance pricing environment and to maintain a reasonable earnings growth profile," the note says. The analyst makes QBE their pick of ASX-listed general insurers. They write that they are increasingly uneasy about domestic challenges, particularly a heavy reliance on higher premiums to maintain their gross-written premium growth. CLSA raises its target price 5.4% to 25.25 Australian dollars. Shares are 1.4% higher at A$23.255. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0420 GMT - Chinese equities extend their early losses after data showed a sharp slowdown in industrial profit growth in August. The Shanghai Composite Index is 1.7% lower at 3820.82 midday, the Shenzhen Composite Index drops 3.1%, and the ChiNext Price Index falls 4.3%. Investors are also digesting the Xi-Trump summit, which analysts broadly say produced few concrete deliverables but reinforced a phase of detente after years of tension. Tech hardware stocks lead the losses. Foxconn Industrial Internet drops 3.7% and Zhongji Innolight is 8.7% lower. Chip makers Cambricon Technologies and CXMT tumbled 5.9% and 3.9%, respectively. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0207 GMT - Asian currencies broadly weaken against the dollar. The global backdrop remains challenging for regional currencies, as elevated oil prices and high global yields continue to reinforce each other, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a report. Middle East tensions are high, with no clear resolution to the disruption along the Strait of Hormuz nor when oil supply can be normalized, he adds. The U.S. dollar is 0.3% higher at 157.72 yen and 0.5% higher at 1360.60 won, while the Australian dollar is 0.1% lower at US$0.7018, LSEG data show. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0140 GMT - Australia's Macquarie Group gets a new bull at RBC, where analyst Andrei Stadnik sees positive earnings risks from ongoing volatility in commodity markets. Initiating coverage of the stock with an outperform rating, Stadnik includes exposure to commodity prices among the factors drawing him to the financial services provider. He tells clients in a note that operating leverage across asset management and personal banking should underpin mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth into fiscal 2029. With the potential for large sales by Macquarie's asset-management business, Stadnik reckons that a multiple of 17 times fiscal 2028 earnings looks undemanding. RBC puts a target price on the stock of 300.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 2.1% at A$244.56. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0139 GMT - Macquarie's bull at Jefferies expects materially stronger first-half revenues from the financial group's commodities and global markets unit. Keeping a buy rating on the stock, analyst Andrew Lyons points out that strong trading conditions flagged at July's annual general meeting continued through the remainder of the Australian company's fiscal first half. Lyons tells clients in a note that his first-half net profit forecast sits about 13% ahead of consensus, which he says materially de-risks the second-half skew relative to both market expectations and prior performance. Jefferies raises its target price on the stock by 0.1% to 284.34 Australian dollars. Shares are up 2.0% at A$244.34.

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