The company is getting closer to making the rocket fully reusable
SpaceX's Starship rocket is expected to launch on Sept. 28 from the company's launch complex in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX is just minutes away from launching its Starship rocket to orbit for the first time - in what could unlock significant opportunities for its Starlink business.
The aerospace company has a 75-minute launch window for Starship that opens at 8:15 a.m. Eastern on Monday. SpaceX (SPCX) said early on Monday that it aimed to launch Starship at 8:46 a.m. The launch will be livestreamed by the company.
After liftoff, the 407-foot-tall rocket is set to embark on a nearly 10-hour mission and complete six orbits around the Earth before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean. That should help SpaceX test a slew of improvements to Starship and its Super Heavy booster, setting up what the company called the "next phase" of making the rocket fully reusable.
Monday's launch could also be Starship's first revenue-generating flight, according to CFO Bret Johnsen, allowing SpaceX to begin recouping some of the $15 billion-plus it's spent on the rocket. Around $100 billion is also expected to be spent on a spaceport primarily dedicated to Starship.
Starship on Monday is expected to attempt to carry and deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites, collectively adding about 10 times the capacity capable of being deployed by one of SpaceX's Falcon 9 launches. It's the first time that SpaceX is deploying its advanced V3 satellites to orbit.
"Each new V3 satellite has ten times the capacity of an existing V2 mini satellite," Bernstein analysts led by Douglas Harned said in a client note on Monday. "Assuming even a modestly successful progression of Starship launches, Starlink capacity should be a non-issue."
Harned said that SpaceX's connectivity business could generate $64 billion in revenue in 2031, up from an estimated $17.5 billion this year, according to FactSet's compilation of analyst estimates. His forecast relies on Starlink capturing "essentially 100%" of satellite broadband customers in its chosen markets, while also taking market share from non-fiber broadband subscribers.
Harned noted that Starlink's broadband subscriber base is expected to double in 2026, extending its streak to five years. As of August, Starlink had more than 13 million consumer subscribers. It ended 2025 with about 9 million subscribers.
However, KeyBanc analysts led by Brandon Nispel said in a recent report that Starlink's monthly average users in August declined 17% relative to a year earlier. They expected Starlink to add 1.75 million net subscribers in the current quarter, below the Wall Street consensus of 2.3 million net customer additions.
"Furthermore, we view the high churn and limited net-add acceleration as positive to the terrestrial operators," Nispel added in his Sept. 21 report, referring to AT&T (T), Verizon Communications (VZ) and T-Mobile $(TMUS)$. Those companies' stocks have been under pressure this year as investors have grown concerned about Starlink.
-William Gavin