Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 28

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0849 ET - Canadian railways for a fourth straight month notched a rise in carloadings in July as strong growth in grains more than made up for large declines in coal and potash. Statistics Canada data shows railways transported 31.7 million metric tons of freight for the month, up 2.6% on-year. Traffic hit the third-highest level on record for the month of July, exceeding the five-year average for the month of 30.1 million tons. Freight loadings from connections with U.S. railways rose 11.1% on-year to 3.8 million tons, which may partly reflect re-routing of some rail traffic via American connections amid wildfires in Northern Ontario and British Columbia during the month, the data agency says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0605 ET - Palm oil ended lower in Asia. Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-25 period are estimated to be down 24% on month. Prices were likely weighed by Malaysia's sluggish export data and expectations of higher tropical oil output, Kenanga Futures analysts said in a note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery closed 9 ringgit lower at 4,663 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0455 ET - Mining stocks fall sharply, tracking a downturn in metals prices. Higher oil prices and strong industrial activity data in the U.S. reinforced expectations central bank policy rates will be higher for longer, ANZ analysts say, in turn weighing on non-yielding metals. Gold and sliver contracts fall by 3% and 5% in New York, respectively, while London copper futures fall by 1.8%. Silver miner Fresnillo falls 5.8%, leading the fallers in London's FTSE 100. Gold miners Endeavour Mining and Antofagasta drop 5.1% and 2.6%, while copper miner Anglo American drops 2.2%. Luxembourg-based steel group Arcelor Mittal shares drop 2.2%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0348 ET - European gas prices rise more than 2% after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal, fueling concerns over prolonged disruptions to LNG flows ahead of winter. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 2.4% to 73.63 euros a megawatt-hour. "Lower Norwegian pipeline flows due to maintenance and subdued LNG traffic through Hormuz continue to tighten the market," analysts at ANZ say. "Meanwhile, a rebound in Chinese LNG imports highlights the risk of stronger Asian competition for cargo, leaving European gas prices vulnerable to winter demand and further supply shocks." EU storage levels are currently 70% full. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0345 ET - Gold prices drop as rising oil prices reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further next month, a move that would put pressure on the nonyielding metal. In early European trading, New York gold futures are down 3% to $4,189.40 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.2% at 101.14, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. Market watchers expect rising yields and a strong dollar to keep the macro backdrop challenging for gold. However, "it is also worth noting that much of the selling occurred during Asian hours, potentially pointing to profit-taking by Chinese investors ahead of the Golden Week holiday starting Thursday," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike in October. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

2323 ET - Iron ore falls in early Asian trading. Prices are likely weighed by weak steel demand, ANZ Research says in a note. The China Iron and Steel Association has urged mills to curb production and draw down inventories to protect margins and limit excess supply, the team adds. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 1.05% at 704.0 yuan a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

2259 ET - The finalization of Orica's North American ammonium nitrate supply arrangements for FY 2027 is "a slight positive," according to RBC Capital Markets. Yet it is only for one year and there will be a negligible impact on margins, the broker says. On the other hand, the delay in the sale of the Deer Park land is "a slight negative," says RBC. It expects the land will eventually be sold, and Orica says the change in timing doesn't affect its underlying business operations. RBC keeps an outperform rating. Its price target on Orica is A$27.00/share. The stock is up 2.3% at A$23.37/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2242 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures could continue to see negative momentum, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Indonesia may face a shorter-than-usual wet season from November, potentially affecting crop conditions, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects CPO futures to find support at 4,624 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,724 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 10 ringgit at 4,662 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2240 ET - The rejected Gold Fields bid for Northern Star puts somewhat of a floor under the Australian miner's share price, says Macquarie. That's because it shows clear corporate interest in the company as a whole, the bank says. "Perhaps the bid comes from an African gold company which is happy to look-through the short-term risks of NST (management/board changes, and KCGM ramp-up risk) and is keen to diversify away from higher-jurisdiction risk countries for increased Australian gold exposure," Macquarie says. It notes that Northern Star trades at a roughly 6% discount to Gold Fields based on valuation. Macquarie has a neutral rating and A$22.50/share target on Northern Star. Shares are up 8.1% at A$23.91. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2142 ET - A rejected takeover proposal for Northern Star from Gold Fields values the Australian miner at 8.7x enterprise value/Ebitda based on FY27 estimates, RBC Capital Markets says. That is a 16% premium to peer Evolution Mining, which trades at 7.5x, says RBC. It is a roughly 48% premium to RBC's ASX gold coverage, on 5.9x, the broker says. Northern Star shares are up 8.5% at A$23.98. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2121 ET - Indonesia's agrarian reform law may cap Southeast Asian plantation stocks' share-price performance as regulatory uncertainty increases, Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting says in a note. The law might not trigger an immediate redistribution of productive plantation land, but future landholding limits and rules on existing concessions remain unclear, he says. Further guidance is needed on whether the 20% plasma requirement will apply to existing plantations, he notes, referring to the portion of plantations operated by smallholders. Pending greater clarity, near-term CPO price upside will likely remain limited by strong production and weak exports, despite a more positive outlook for 2027, he reckons. Malaysia-focused plantation companies could be relatively less exposed to the regulatory risks, he adds. Maybank pegs SD Guthrie, Sarawak Oil Palms and Genting Plantations as top buys. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2039 ET - Gold falls in early Asian trade. Higher oil prices and strong U.S. industrial activity data reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may need to keep policy tighter for longer, ANZ Research writes in a note. Rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar will likely keep the macro backdrop challenging for the yellow metal, the team adds. Spot gold is 1.1% lower at $4,237.21 an ounce.

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