Six weeks before the midterm elections, DEMZ is beating MAGA.

Those are the tickers of two exchange-traded funds designed for partisan investors. DEMZ, the Democratic Large Cap Core ETF, has gained 0.8% so far this month, while MAGA, the Truth Social America First ETF, has lost 3.7%.

DEMZ invests in S&P 500 companies whose executives strongly favor Democrats with their political contributions. MAGA is its closest Republican equivalent, investing in large-cap companies whose employees and political action committees prefer to give money to Republicans.

It may be tempting to conclude that DEMZ is winning because polls favor Democrats in the upcoming elections. Prediction markets now anticipate Republicans losing both houses of Congress: Bettors on Kalshi put the chances of Democrats taking control of the Senate at 62%, a reversal from less than two weeks ago, when Republicans had a narrow edge.

But the outperformance of DEMZ has more to do with technology stocks having a good month. The Democratic ETF's top 10 holdings include Apple, Google parent Alphabet and Nvidia. MAGA's holdings lean more towards energy stocks, which have lagged the broader market in September.

Notably, both funds have underperformed the (nonpartisan) S&P 500 index, which is up about 1% so far this month.