Shares of StubHub rose Friday after Citi analysts upgraded the stock on expectations that "robust" downloads will boost ticket sales, offering a potential lift after the World Cup failed to offset the platform's mounting costs.

StubHub stock added 4.3% to $6.20, distancing itself from its 52-week low of $5.88 reached Tuesday.

Citi analysts wrote Friday that they believe StubHub will report third-quarter adjusted Ebitda above expectations thanks to robust app downloads, allowing the ticket reseller to deliver full-year adjusted Ebitda "near the high end" of StubHub's guidance of $420 million.

"As such, we are upgrading StubHub to Buy," analysts said.

Third-quarter downloads are expected to have increased to 1.4 million, up from 1.2 million in the prior quarter, with projections for another 800,000 downloads through the fourth quarter, Citi analysts wrote.

Even with an expected resurgence in downloads, Citi lowered its price target for StubHub shares to $7 from $9, citing the potential impact of an MLB lockout.

Wall Street anticipated the FIFA World Cup to lift StubHub's business, with Morgan Stanley analysts writing in May that the event could "prove a meaningful tailwind for the secondary ticketing industry." That month, StubHub reported earnings that showed an increase in ticket demand.

But StubHub's spending outpaced the "record" quarterly revenue of $573.1 million that CEO Erik Baker reported in August. The ticket platform posted a second-quarter loss attributable to common stockholders of $40,000, while its expenses surged 37%.

StubHub's stock has dropped 75% through Thursday from its trading debut in 2025. Its initial public offering was priced at $23.50.

Recent weakness in StubHub shares is driven by fears that the company will miss adjusted Ebitda guidance and that AI could disrupt its business in the long run, Citi analysts said.

StubHub is expected to report third-quarter earnings in November.