Citi has issued a research report stating that it maintains a "Buy" rating on both Tongcheng Travel (00780) and Trip.com-S (09961), with a target price of HK$22 for Tongcheng and US$61 for Trip.com's US-listed shares (TCOM.US).

Although the Ministry of Culture and Tourism has not yet released tourism data for the Mid-Autumn holiday, the bank forecasts that long-haul travel will perform solidly during the holiday period, with nationwide passenger volume expected to record a two-year compound growth rate of 1.1%. Among the segments, aviation, railway, road, and waterway are projected to grow by 9.4%, 12.4%, remain flat, and grow by 20.7% respectively. Border entry and exit data show that cross-border passenger volume rose 16.8% year-on-year during the period.

As this year's Mid-Autumn Festival falls close to the National Day holiday, Citi believes many people will use annual leave to "bridge" the two holidays and extend their time off, so the strong performance in aviation and railway passenger volume is not surprising.

The bank notes that some travel demand may have been pulled forward to the Mid-Autumn period, potentially affecting National Day data, but it expects combined demand across the two holidays to still perform well year-on-year. This demonstrates that even amid a softening macroeconomic environment, travel demand remains resilient, which the bank believes will be favorable for the upcoming earnings announcements of online travel agencies (OTAs).