Population matters stand as a matter of paramount national significance. With the acceleration of population aging and the growing trend of fewer children, China has entered a new phase of demographic development, presenting entirely fresh challenges for policy work. Notably, two State Council executive meetings held on September 11 and September 18 both focused on the new shifts in population structure, centering on the needs of the elderly and the young.
As the autumn semester commences this year, the first cohort of children born after 2020 steps into primary school classrooms. Let us first examine the "young" demographic. Population variables represent the most significant influencing factor in basic education, with the current primary challenge being the staggered peaking and gradual decline of the school-age population. The number of preschool and primary school-age children has already peaked, while the junior high school-age population is reaching its peak this year, and the senior high school-age cohort is expected to peak by 2029, displaying a wave-like pattern of change.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Education, by 2035, China's school-age population (ages 3 to 22) will decline from 320 million in 2024 to 230 million. This presents both a challenge for the allocation of educational resources and an opportunity for proactive adjustment and optimization. The State Council executive meeting held on September 11 required a focus on reasonably allocating educational resources in response to changes in the school-age population, coordinating efforts in degree offerings, teacher deployment, and funding guarantees. It also emphasized cultivating outstanding innovative talents aligned with national strategic needs, continuously optimizing academic discipline layouts, textbook system construction, and talent training models to enhance the quality of self-directed talent cultivation, while promoting the physical and mental health and holistic development of students.
On September 23, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Tian Zuyin, Deputy Chief Inspector of the Ministry of Education and Director of the Basic Education Department, stated that China's basic education system encompasses a total of 430,000 primary and secondary schools and kindergartens. He stressed the need to respond proactively by establishing a comprehensive monitoring and early warning mechanism for school-age population changes, expanding the supply of educational resources in towns with net inflows of school-age populations and in areas with weak foundational infrastructure, increasing the construction of combined middle and high schools and twelve-year integrated schools, and promoting small-class teaching reforms tailored to local conditions.
It is worth noting that, unlike basic education, the higher education school-age population will continue to grow during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. In the past two years, through the expansion of quality undergraduate programs, Double First-Class universities have already enrolled an additional 38,000 students. The outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly proposes that Double First-Class universities should increase undergraduate enrollment by more than 100,000 additional students.
Now turning to the "elderly" demographic. Population aging represents a fundamental condition of China. By the end of 2025, the population aged 60 and above has surpassed 320 million, accounting for 23 percent of the total population, while the population aged 65 and above has reached 220 million, representing 15.9 percent of the total. It is projected that by around 2035, the population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, ushering in a stage of severe aging, and by the middle of this century, it will surpass 500 million, reaching its peak.
The State Council executive meeting held on September 18 emphasized the need for a comprehensive and objective understanding of the impacts of population aging. In terms of ensuring elderly care, efforts should focus on enhancing service guarantee levels for older persons, with sustained efforts in elderly care services, health promotion, and social security. This includes improving the multi-tiered and multi-pillar old-age insurance system, opening up interconnected channels for home-based, community-based, and institutional elderly care services, and expanding inclusive elderly care services.
China's policy framework for aging has been continuously refined and improved. The latest statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs show that 19 million low-income and destitute elderly individuals have been included in the scope of social assistance guarantees, and over 53 million elderly persons have benefited from policies such as elderly allowances. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will focus on improving the urban and rural three-tier elderly care service system, raising the proportion of nursing-type beds in elderly care institutions to 73 percent, strengthening care services for elderly persons with disabilities and cognitive impairments, enhancing rural elderly care services according to local conditions, and ensuring that all elderly persons have access to basic elderly care services.
In terms of ensuring a fulfilling life for the elderly, the State Council executive meeting made arrangements for multiple elderly care industries, proposing to enrich silver economy products and services tailored to the characteristics of the elderly population, cultivate new scenarios for silver economy consumption, and better meet the consumption needs of older persons, thereby achieving a two-way promotion of people's well-being and domestic demand expansion.
On September 23, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Li Changguan, Minister of Civil Affairs, stated that efforts will be made to carry out the new era "Silver Age Action" in depth, guiding elderly persons to participate in grassroots governance, rural revitalization, science, education, culture, and health, and care for the next generation. He emphasized expanding the supply of elderly education and cultural and sports services, promoting the establishment of a certification system for silver economy products and services, and supporting enterprises in developing more safe, practical, and reasonably priced products and services based on the actual needs of the elderly. Additionally, efforts will be made to strictly crack down on illegal and criminal acts that infringe upon the lawful rights and interests of the elderly, vigorously promote the traditional virtue of filial piety and respect for the elderly, foster intergenerational harmony, and enable all elderly persons to enjoy a happy and peaceful later life.
The elderly represent our treasure, while the young embody our future. By securing the stable well-being of both the elderly and the young, we can solidify the foundation of people's livelihoods.