Orient Securities released a research report stating that at the current juncture, the certainty of Tesla (TSLA.US) Optimus mass production is continuously strengthening, and looking forward, the advancement of Tesla Optimus mass production progress will be expected to catalyze sector sentiment, drive sector valuation improvement, and related component suppliers are expected to continue benefiting. The main points of Orient Securities are as follows:
Where the Optimus mass production push stands and why it could lift sector sentiment
The report noted that previously the market had relatively low expectations for embodied intelligence development, but with recent announcements regarding Tesla Optimus factory audits and mass production progress, sentiment in the robotics sector has been somewhat boosted. According to media reports, Tesla is currently able to produce several hundred Optimus units per week at its Fremont factory in the United States, roughly a 10-fold increase from the dozens per week during the small-batch testing phase in the second quarter of this year. Tesla management hopes to establish a continuously operating automated production line before the end of this year, with a target capacity of more than 1,000 units per week. The report believes that at the current juncture, the certainty of Tesla Optimus mass production is continuously strengthening, and looking forward, the advancement of Tesla Optimus mass production progress will be expected to catalyze sector sentiment, drive sector valuation improvement, and related component suppliers are expected to continue benefiting.
Marginal improvement in embodied intelligence industry prosperity strengthens the certainty of Tesla humanoid robot mass production
From the latest marginal changes, the report believes that the prosperity of mass production in the embodied intelligence industry is still rising. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that from June to August 2026, the monthly export value of intelligent bionic robots all exceeded 200 million yuan per month, a clear improvement from the average level from January to May. Since May 2026, China's monthly export volume of intelligent bionic robots has remained at a relatively high level of around 2,000 units. Among them, from January to August 2026, procurement volumes from countries and regions such as the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Germany were relatively large. The report believes that the high prosperity of the embodied intelligence industry provides favorable external conditions for Tesla humanoid robot mass production and strengthens the certainty of mass production.
With scenario advantages, Optimus production ramp-up certainty is strong, and related component suppliers will continue to benefit
The report noted that although the market is concerned about the currently limited application scenarios for humanoid robots, it believes that for cross-sector humanoid robot manufacturers such as Tesla and Xpeng, they possess a naturally leading scenario advantage. Tesla previously said on its Q2 2026 earnings call that the first batch of offline Optimus units will be deployed within the Optimus Academy factory scenario to collect data. In addition, the report believes that Tesla's automobile factories are also expected to become suitable scenarios for the implementation of its humanoid robots. Therefore, the report believes that such scenario advantages provide favorable internal conditions for Tesla Optimus mass production. Previously, Xpeng's robot completed supply chain factory audits and core component designations, which the report believes also indirectly confirms that cross-sector humanoid robot manufacturers have strong motivation for mass production. In addition, media reports show that Xpeng robot's core suppliers may have a relatively high degree of overlap with Tesla Optimus. Looking forward, the report believes that Tesla Optimus mass production progress is expected to continue advancing, and related component suppliers will continue to benefit.
Risk warning
Manufacturer production falling short of expectations, unclear implementation of scenario demand leading to lower-than-expected results, national policy changes leading to slower industry development, industry financing falling short of expectations, model development and data collection slower than expected, order execution results lower than expected, and product price reduction risks.