Source: Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy Research. First, the short-term market remains highly sensitive to oil prices, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. The medium-term outlook is unchanged: neither technology nor non-technology sectors can yet become the structural mainline for rebuilding a major trending rally, so we should calmly accept a phase where no breakthrough direction can be found. The tone for the remainder of 2026 leans toward a period of consolidation and rest. Short-term market movements remain highly correlated with oil prices, US Treasury yields, and Fed rate hike expectations. This is largely consistent with our inference of the market's main contradictions. Fed rate hikes are not the solution to medium-term problems; instead, they may intensify concerns about medium-term risks. The domestic economy showed marginal improvement in 2026 Q3 relative to 2026 Q2, but A-share earnings verification may show an extra high growth in 2026 Q2 followed by a significant decline in 2026 Q3. Meanwhile, short-term policy execution has improved, but year-end policy planning remains to be observed, and 2027 is an important congress year with no historical experience of obvious strong stimulus. Under such a combination, neither technology nor non-technology sectors can rebuild the structural mainline for a major trending rally in the short term. The tone for the remainder of 2026 leans toward a period of consolidation and rest.

Second, identifying notable event windows in 2026 Q4: 1. 2026 Q4 to 2027 H1 is a key window in the global political cycle. 2. 2026 Q4 is a domestic policy planning period: the Fifth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, with attention to incremental real estate policy planning across various regions. 3. At the technology industry catalyst level, focus on the A-share third-quarter earnings period where valuations are initially digested, and overseas AI chain fourth-quarter earnings verification.

First, 2026 Q4 to 2027 H1 is a key window in the global political cycle. For 2026 Q4, watch: 1. Brazil's two-round general election in October, with attention to the possibility of a right-wing pro-US president coming to power. 2. Israel's parliamentary election in October, where the opposition is also right-wing and equally tough on Iran and Hezbollah, but policy is less constrained by the far-right. 3. The US midterm elections in November, which still suggest the classic calendar effect of US stocks adjusting before the midterms and rebounding afterward. Meanwhile, 2026 Q4 is a key window for incremental domestic policy planning. Based on historical experience, for 2026 Q4 we can watch: 1. The 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session, where the direction of personnel reshuffling may be preliminarily verified. 2. The Central Economic Work Conference, where 2026 Q3 was mainly about intensified execution of existing policies, and the year-end may be the window for incremental policy planning. 3. After the new real estate sales rules take effect, 2026 Q4 is a key window for local incremental stimulus policy planning plus resolution of existing problems.

At the technology industry level, earnings verification for both A-shares and US stocks in 2026 Q4 remains important. In the October A-share third-quarter earnings verification, valuations in telecommunications and electronics are initially digested, and after October there may be a market dynamic of AI leaders diverging and strengthening plus technology themes becoming active again. Fourth-quarter US tech stock earnings verification remains important; rebuilding an industrial catalyst at the level of a major trending rally requires opening up upside space for ARR, renewed upward revision of AI chain capital expenditure expectations, and ultimately bringing new computing power inflation clues. Additionally, verification of cash flow pressure at CSP leaders directly corresponds to the market's concerns about the pressure of profit redistribution from computing power inflation.

Third, the currently effective AI chain aesthetic remains unchanged: 1. A few directions where fundamental expectations can exceed those at the end of June (CPO and a few new computing power inflation directions catalyzed by GPT6, favorable pricing transmission in the PCB industry chain, etc.). 2. Directions where 2027 prosperity continues to improve relative to 2026, verified by the late-October third-quarter earnings, and which may diverge and strengthen after earnings digest valuations. Focus on storage, high-end CCL, PCB, and capacitors. 3. Value thematic investments in both technology and non-technology. The current situation closely resembles the first half of 2014, with short-term adjustments and medium-term consolidation extending the rest phase. Greater emphasis should be placed on technology and non-technology themes. The unfolding of technology themes is a process of brewing a new stage of investment mainline. Amid short-term market headwinds, the market has not fully explored AI industry progress. This preserves space for thematic rotation in the subsequent rebound phase. Risk warning: overseas economic recession exceeding expectations, domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations.