On September 28, Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal and oil prices while reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike. As a result, gold fell considerably.

Looking ahead to this week, the market will simultaneously face the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision, and speeches from central bank officials of multiple countries. The U.S.-Iran situation remains an important variable.

On Monday (September 28), several Fed officials will deliver remarks this week. Last week, Williams and Jefferson took turns striking a hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains too high and policy needs to stay restrictive. If more officials sound hawkish this week, expectations of "one more hike within the year" will strengthen, pressuring gold prices. If any official signals a dovish stance, gold prices could find support.

Additionally, over the weekend Trump rejected Iran's "lift sanctions first, then discuss nuclear issues" proposal. The White House demands that Tehran make concessions on the nuclear issue first, otherwise the military option remains on the table. Iran stated it is prepared for conflict. The situation appears tense.

Once oil prices stop surging, inflation expectations will be harder to ignite further, making it more difficult for the Fed's tightening pricing to loosen. This is why gold opened sharply lower this morning.

This week, core PCE is the key anchor indicator for Fed policy, and nonfarm payrolls directly affect rate hike pricing. Before these two data points are released, the start and middle of this week will likely remain cautious, with amplified volatility but no clear direction. Gold traders should still operate with a range-bound, slightly bearish approach for now.

From a technical perspective, after today's morning open, gold's decline was quite rapid, clearly carrying some catch-up selling sentiment. Once the downside space has been filled by the catch-up move, combined with a possible technical correction in the dollar index, gold could still see unusual moves early in the week, so caution is warranted.

The key support at 4235 has already been lost early in the week, and this level can now be viewed as a key battleground resistance. Technically, the 4255-4260 area can be seen as strong resistance early in the week, while on the downside, trendline support at 4200-4190 will be tested. For now, expect weak range-bound trading within the above zones.

In short, if you have short positions from the morning's sharp drop, you can keep trailing your stop-loss and take-profit lower. If you have no position, don't chase anymore. Chasing now carries greater risk unless the 4190-4180 support is broken consecutively, in which case you can enter short positions on a bounce. Otherwise, just observe during the day session and watch this support level. If it holds for a long time without breaking, you can reverse to go long and continue watching the range.

Therefore, for intraday operations, the recommendation is: Gold: Go long at 4190-4192, stop-loss at 4180, target 4250-4260. If it breaks below 4180, go short on a bounce, target 4130-4120.

Key economic data and events to watch today: Monday, September 28, 2026. TBD: ECB President Lagarde delivers testimony. 22:30: U.S. September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.