On October 5th, we noted last Friday that dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials had cooled expectations for an October rate hike, helping gold stabilize after its decline. However, the market maintained high expectations for a December rate hike, and the dollar remained strong, limiting gold's short-term rebound potential. Short-term technical indicators also showed that sellers still held the advantage, with weak rebound signals. Therefore, we advised that on the upside, resistance should be watched at $4,200, followed by $4,235, while on the downside, support should be monitored at $4,150, followed by $4,110.

Looking at the subsequent price action, during last Friday's European session, gold pulled back to $4,166 and stabilized. After the U.S. session opened, gold briefly surged to a daily high of $4,226, but quickly met resistance and fell back to $4,125 where it found support. Before the close, it rebounded to $4,150 but encountered resistance. On Monday's open, gold rebounded to $4,166 before facing resistance, fell to $4,124 and stabilized, then rebounded to $4,170 but was capped again. It is currently trading near $4,156. Overall, gold's rebound has been limited, essentially oscillating within our indicated range of $4,235 to $4,110.

According to Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) star analysts, gold has been under broad pressure over the past month, with market expectations for further Fed tightening this year being the primary factor weighing on prices. After the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, Fed officials delivered a series of hawkish remarks, fueling rising expectations for rate hikes in both October and December. Last week, gold briefly hit a two-month low. However, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Governor Bowman subsequently indicated there was no urgent need to raise rates, and PCE data came in below expectations, cooling October and December rate hike expectations and helping gold stabilize. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed only 29,000 new jobs, far below the market forecast of 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This essentially eliminated the possibility of an October rate hike, briefly pushing gold above $4,200. However, the market continued to maintain high expectations for a December rate hike, and the dollar kept rising to a new high since last April, pressuring gold and causing it to retreat from its highs and remain in low-level consolidation.

On the daily chart, after hitting a two-month low, gold has stabilized and is consolidating at lower levels. On the downside, support can be watched at the intraday low of $4,124, which is also the low point from last Friday's pullback after the surge, followed by the psychological level of $4,100, which is also the current lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. On the upside, resistance can be watched at the psychological level of $4,200, which is also the current upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, followed by $4,235, the low from over a month ago before gold broke downward last week. The 5-day moving average has formed a death cross with a slight upturn, the MACD indicator shows a death cross pointing downward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators have death crosses with slight upturns, all remaining in weak territory. Short-term technicals suggest sellers still hold the advantage, and rebound signals remain weak.

Intraday reference for gold: U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, and the market has essentially ruled out an October rate hike. However, December rate hike expectations remain elevated, supporting dollar strength and continuing to pressure gold prices. In terms of strategy, a range-trading approach is recommended, with upside resistance at $4,200 and $4,235, and downside support at $4,124 and $4,100.