With headlines about Tom Hale, CEO of Oura, and generative AI dominating the news, it is easy to overlook developments in other industries. For example, smart fitness ring maker Oura is expected to launch its IPO this week, an event worth watching. Admittedly, its impact is not as big as the Anthropic listing the market is anticipating. But for readers who want to see just how far a flash-in-the-pan company can be hyped, this is an excellent case study.
That assessment may sound a bit harsh. As a leader in the health wearable space, Oura has risen to fame over the past few years. For the 2025 fiscal year ended last September, the company doubled its revenue to $907.9 million; in the first nine months through June of this year, revenue surged another 74%. Oura generates real cash flow, with net cash inflow of $100 million in fiscal 2025. But we have seen this script before. Arete Research analyst Richard Kramer noted that Oura shares similarities with a group of companies that followed a "single product plus subscription model but ended up with disappointing outcomes," such as Peloton, GoPro, and Fitbit.
Take GoPro as an example. GoPro went public in 2014, when its sales were soaring. Revenue nearly doubled to $985.7 million in 2013 and grew another 41% in 2014. GoPro was also profitable, earning $84 million in 2013, with profit slipping slightly in 2014. At the time, investors were broadly worried, but one not particularly clever columnist — yes, that was me — wrote a bullish piece offering a foolish contrarian view that GoPro still had growth potential. It turned out I was completely wrong. GoPro's revenue peaked at $1.6 billion in 2015 and then shrank steadily, reaching only $651 million in 2025. The stock fell from $50-$60 in mid-2015 to $0.6 last month. On September 1, GoPro announced it would merge with an optical photonics company; after the deal closes, original shareholders will receive $1.14 per share in cash plus a small equity stake in the newly merged company.
GoPro's core problem is the same as Oura's: being in a niche hardware segment with abundant competitive alternatives. Oura faces exactly the same situation, with a steady stream of competing products on the market, including the Apple Watch and Google's recently launched $99 wristband tracking device. Moreover, Oura's smart ring is not cheap, starting at $349. Oura's valuation is not cheap either. Assuming the strong growth of the first nine months extends into the fourth quarter, at the midpoint of the IPO price range, Oura would be valued at about 9 times expected revenue for the year. According to Koyfin data, that valuation multiple is exactly equivalent to GoPro's trading level at its 2014 peak. For most of the past decade, GoPro's price-to-sales ratio fluctuated only between 0.3 and 1 times. Another niche hardware maker, Sonos, currently trades at just 1.2 times sales. Across the entire market, the only hardware company that can sustain a 9 times price-to-sales ratio is Apple. And Oura is in no way comparable to Apple. Investors would be wise to avoid Oura.
Micron Faces a Crucial Week
Micron Technology, one of the world's three largest memory chip makers (the other two being SK Hynix and Samsung), will report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Wednesday. The market widely expects explosive growth. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, the company's revenue guidance range is $50 billion (plus or minus $1 billion), and the analyst consensus is expected to land at the upper end of the range. Whether the final figure is $50 billion or $51 billion, compared with fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue of $11.32 billion, it would be extremely impressive, representing year-over-year growth of about 345%, close to the third-quarter growth rate. The market expects fourth-quarter earnings per share of about $31, compared with just $2.83 in the same period last year — a stark contrast. The logic behind the revenue explosion is very clear: AI data centers are creating a memory chip shortage. So far this year, Micron's stock has risen 280% cumulatively, fully reflecting the strength of the business.
The memory chip market is red hot. Reuters reported on Friday that South Korea's SK Hynix, which listed in the United States this summer, is considering spinning off its Solidigm business for a separate IPO. Solidigm focuses on NAND flash memory, providing storage for servers. Although NAND flash is not the most sought-after chip category for data centers, demand remains strong. Reuters cited sources saying the Solidigm spin-off IPO could be valued at up to $150 billion. By comparison, SK Hynix paid a total consideration of just $8.8 billion in two steps between 2021 and 2025 to acquire the former Intel NAND flash business (Solidigm's core asset), an astonishing increase in asset value.