According to Woofun AI, macro-level signals of cooling inflation are reshaping market expectations for monetary policy, directly reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, a chain of logic that provides crucial bottom support for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Dissecting the latest PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data, the overall inflation rate rose 0.3% month-over-month compared with July, with a year-over-year gain of 3.4%; meanwhile, core PCE grew 0.2% month-over-month, with a year-over-year rise of 3%. This set of data sends the market a clear signal that the pace of policy tightening may slow.
Brendan Ma, head of investment strategy at the Arbitrum Foundation, noted that the modest 0.2% monthly increase in core PCE is a positive factor for the Federal Reserve, and if September's Consumer Price Index data continues this trend, the pressure for an October rate hike will ease significantly. Li Zhuming, head of market analysis at DWF Labs, further argued that the mild inflation performance lowers the probability of a rate hike, prompting investor sentiment to turn optimistic.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that Bitcoin's volatility is currently at an annual low, and options market positioning is largely balanced, a neutral stance indicating that traders did not display extreme bullish or bearish leanings before the data release, allowing Bitcoin to maintain a relatively stable trading rhythm amid news-driven disturbances.
Despite the favorable macroeconomic environment, resistance at the price level remains significant. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at around $84,300, up less than 1% in 24 hours. Vetle Lund, an analyst at K33, warned that rising U.S. Treasury bond yields are forcing investors to reduce risk exposure, directly limiting Bitcoin's upside. After posting its highest weekly close since January, Bitcoin is now mired in a consolidation phase, with high yields and cautious positioning together acting as suppressing forces.
The broader digital asset market is also showing signs of profit-taking. Ilya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, pointed out that altcoin trading volume flowing into exchanges over the past seven days has reached its highest level since October 2025, reflecting that some funds are withdrawing or adjusting positions.
From a long-term capital flow perspective, structural opportunities are brewing. Brendan Ma mentioned that as short-term Treasury bills within securitized U.S. Treasury bond products gradually mature and convert into lower-yielding financial instruments, some capital will face reallocation needs. These funds seeking higher returns are highly likely to turn to the cryptocurrency market, thereby providing sustained liquidity support for the prices of assets such as Bitcoin. This is the next key variable the market is watching, following the shift in macroeconomic policy expectations.