Recently, Prolytix filed for a Hong Kong listing for the second time. The company's core innovative drug, pramlintide sodium spray (PL-5), has received marketing approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the treatment of secondary infections of first-degree and superficial second-degree burn and scald wounds, making it the world's first approved cannan-type antibacterial peptide drug. As a milestone product in China's antibacterial peptide sector, PL-5's clinical progress and commercialization potential have long been a focus of the capital market. Based on the industry-standard risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) model, combined with public clinical data, competitive landscape, and commercialization expectations, we estimate the pipeline's intrinsic value to provide the market with a reference valuation coordinate.
The core logic of rNPV valuation is to discount the pipeline's future full-lifecycle cash flows to the present after multiple risk adjustments. The formula is: peak sales 脳 clinical success probability 脳 discount factor. And peak sales = total target patient population 脳 expected peak penetration rate 脳 market share 脳 annual treatment cost 脳 clinical data quality coefficient 脳 commercialization rights coefficient.
Regarding clinical success probability, PL-5's marketing application for secondary infections of first-degree and superficial second-degree burn and scald wounds was approved by the NMPA in June 2026. The core Phase III clinical study confirmed its efficacy was superior to the standard treatment, silver sulfadiazine cream. Safety data were consistent with earlier studies, with no new safety signals. It has now entered commercial production and launch preparation, with an official launch expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Given that the product has completed all clinical development and been successfully approved, clinical development risk is fully released, so the clinical success probability is 1.0.
Regarding the total patient population, PL-5 primarily covers patients with secondary wound infections after burns and scalds. According to public epidemiological data, about 26 million people in China suffer burns and scalds of varying degrees each year, of whom about 85% have first-degree and superficial second-degree injuries. About 25% of these patients develop secondary wound infections, creating clinical demand for topical antibacterial treatment, corresponding to about 5.5 million new target patients annually.
Regarding penetration rate, the peak penetration rate in this estimate refers to the long-term steady-state penetration rate of novel non-antibiotic antibacterial peptides among target patients with secondary infections from burns and scalds in China, used to measure the overall mature development stage of the sector. Based on the domestic baseline for wound infection diagnosis and treatment, currently about 60% of burn and scald wound infection patients in China use topical antibacterial drugs in a standardized manner, with traditional sulfonamide and ordinary antibiotic formulations accounting for more than 90% of the market share. Novel antibacterial peptides, with their entirely new mechanism of action based on "cell membrane differentiation," no cross-resistance, and the differentiated advantage of non-invasive spray delivery, are expected to capture about a 15% replacement share among standardized treatment patients in the long-term steady state as clinical awareness gradually increases, medical insurance coverage is implemented, and product accessibility improves. Combining both the increase in treatment rate and category substitution, the long-term steady-state peak penetration rate of novel antibacterial peptides among target patients with secondary infections from burns and scalds in China is about 9%.
Regarding market share, PL-5 is the world's first approved cannan-type antibacterial peptide, a first-in-class (FIC) product. There are currently no marketed competitors in China with the same mechanism or target, with only traditional topical antibacterial drugs constituting indirect competition. Taking into account the sector's first-mover barriers, the product's differentiated clinical advantages, and partner Chia Tai Tianqing's commercialization capabilities, while also considering the long-term risk of potential future competitors, a 80% market share assumption within the subcategory is assigned to PL-5.
Regarding annual treatment cost, the currently commonly used silver sulfadiazine cream is inexpensive, with a single-course treatment cost of only a few dozen yuan. As the world's first-in-class Class 1 innovative drug, PL-5 has an entirely new bactericidal mechanism, superior clinical benefits, and the advantages of a non-invasive spray formulation. Referring to the pricing levels of similar topical innovative drugs in China and medical insurance payment rules, its post-launch single-course treatment cost after medical insurance negotiations is expected to be about 400 yuan. Since burn and scald wound infection is an acute single-episode condition, patients receive about one treatment per year on average, corresponding to an annual treatment cost of about 400 yuan.
From the perspective of clinical data quality, according to Phase III clinical study results published in JAMA Network Open, in the randomized, double-blind, controlled trial (RCT) of PL-5 for secondary open wound infections, the clinical effective rate in the treatment group reached 90.4%, significantly superior to the 78.7% in the positive control silver sulfadiazine cream group (P<0.001). The overall efficacy is superior to existing standard treatment, and it demonstrates outstanding clinical value especially in drug-resistant bacterial infection scenarios. Overall, PL-5 adopted a standardized RCT design and achieved head-to-head superiority over existing standard treatment, so the clinical data quality coefficient is taken as 1.0.
Regarding commercialization rights, PL-5 is a Class 1 innovative drug independently developed by Prolytix. The company has granted exclusive commercialization rights in mainland China to Chia Tai Tianqing, while retaining responsibility for production, supply, and quality control. Referring to the industry's typical licensing partnership rights allocation ratios, the corresponding commercialization rights coefficient is taken as 0.55. Based on the above parameters, PL-5's peak annual sales for the burn and scald wound infection indication in mainland China are approximately 870 million yuan.
Regarding the discount factor, Prolytix, as an innovative Biotech focused on the antibacterial peptide sector, has just received approval for its core product, and there remains some uncertainty in commercialization rollout and market ramp-up. Its overall risk is slightly higher than that of large pharmaceutical companies that have achieved mature commercialization, so the corresponding discount rate is taken as 12%. From a time perspective, PL-5 is expected to officially launch by the end of 2026. Typically, acute wound care drugs require a 3-5 year market ramp-up period after launch to reach sales peak, with peak sales expected around 2031, about 5 years from the current point. Calculated using the compound discount formula, the discount factor is approximately 0.57. Combined with the clinical success probability of 1.0, the final risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of PL-5's burn and scald wound infection indication pipeline in mainland China is approximately 500 million yuan.
Disclaimer: The peak sales, risk-adjusted net present value, and other data in this article are model estimates based on public information and a series of subjective assumptions. They are intended only to illustrate the valuation logic, do not represent official forecasts by Prolytix, and do not constitute any investment advice. Key parameters such as clinical success rate, penetration rate, market share, and annual treatment cost are subject to significant uncertainty, and actual results may differ materially from the estimates. Investors should make independent judgments and bear investment risks themselves.