A wave of new car launches is hitting the market just before the National Day holiday. According to incomplete statistics from Hongxing Capital Bureau, 28 new models from 27 automobile brands went on sale between September 21 and September 30, with nine launches crammed into a single day on September 23. Even netizens are taken aback by the pace, exclaiming that it is "more intense than a phone launch event," that the new cars are "dropping like dumplings," and that the competition is "brutally fierce."

Automotive industry analyst Liu Hao told Hongxing Capital Bureau that carmakers are choosing this window to release their models en masse for two key reasons: first, to position themselves ahead of the National Day holiday and capture the golden week's car-buying rush; second, because "Golden September and Silver October" marks the traditional peak sales season, while the fourth quarter is the critical period for year-end sales volume targets.

28 New Models Target the Golden Week and the Peak Season

Public information shows that 12 carmakers — including FAW, SAIC, GAC, BAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, Great Wall, Geely, Chery, BYD, JAC, and Li Auto — have all chosen to hold new car launch events within the ten days before the National Day holiday. According to incomplete statistics from Hongxing Capital Bureau, 28 new models from 27 brands held launch events between September 21 and September 30, with nine new cars hitting the market on September 23 alone.

This batch of new vehicles spans all powertrain types — petrol, pure electric, extended-range, and plug-in hybrid — with models ranging from sedans, SUVs, and MPVs to crossover coupe-SUVs. The lineup covers everything from A0-class, compact, and mid-size to mid-to-large segments, with pricing ranging from RMB 60,000 to RMB 500,000. Whether it is daily family commuting or long-distance self-driving travel, there is a new model to match every need.

Netizens have been quick to voice their opinions, complaining that "it's more intense than a phone launch event," that the cars are "dropping like dumplings," and that the market is "too competitive." Some have questioned whether this constitutes disorderly competition, arguing that "the vast majority are just also-rans."

Automotive analyst Liu Hao told Hongxing Capital Bureau that the period before the National Day holiday has always been a critical window for new car launches. "This is a strategic decision by carmakers to compete for traffic and orders, not something that can be simply dismissed as disorderly competition," he explained. Liu elaborated that carmakers are clustering their launches at this time to secure a position ahead of the holiday and seize the golden week's purchasing wave, while also leveraging the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" sales season, with the fourth quarter being pivotal for hitting year-end sales targets.

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales of passenger cars nationwide reached 1.541 million units in August, a year-on-year decline of 23.6% but a month-on-month increase of 5.5%. Cumulative retail sales for the year to date stand at 11.716 million units, down 20.8% year-on-year. August's passenger car market showed a pattern of "weak overall recovery, stronger month-on-month momentum, and extreme structural divergence." The CPCA projects that showroom foot traffic will continue to recover in September, extending the month-on-month improvement trend.

Most New Cars Are Destined to Be "Cannon Fodder" as the Industry Cracks Down on "Rushed Vehicles"

CPCA data shows that from January to July this year, China's passenger car market saw a total of 320 new model launches (including all-new models, major facelifts, annual refreshes, generational changes, and additions). Of these, 77 were all-new models and 15 were full generational replacements, with the remainder being facelifts or incremental versions.

Most new cars fail to achieve meaningful market scale after launch, leaving them as "cannon fodder," while market share becomes increasingly concentrated among a small number of top-selling models. According to data from Dongchedi, only 36 models (including all versions of each model) sold more than 10,000 units in August, 104 models sold over 5,000 units, and 493 models sold more than 100 units. Notably, 644 models recorded at least some sales volume. In other words, just 5.6% of models achieved monthly sales above 10,000 units, while nearly a quarter of all models sold only between 1 and 100 units per month.

This situation represents a massive waste of resources and places enormous cost pressure on carmakers. Li Zhijun, a senior executive at Dongfeng Motor Group, noted that the average investment for a single all-new model is approximately RMB 1 billion. William Li, Chairman of NIO (09866.HK/NIO.US), has also stated that wasting hundreds of millions of yuan on a single model has become the norm.

Due to factors such as lower-than-expected revenue from existing models and impairment of production-line equipment for older models, Seres (601127.SH) recorded credit and asset impairment provisions of RMB 1.862 billion in the first half of this year, while Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) made asset impairment provisions of approximately RMB 456 million.

The industry has been engaged in a major debate over "rushed vehicles" since June. Multiple carmaker executives have publicly opposed the practice, arguing that automobiles are not consumer electronics and that test and validation cycles must not be compressed simply to meet launch deadlines. In July, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) explicitly called for resistance to irrational competition, emphasizing the need to strengthen product testing, validation, and safety assessments. On August 27, the MIIT, together with the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, jointly issued a notice launching a year-long special campaign focused on production consistency and quality improvement, with reliability, durability, development cycles, and new technology validation placed under key scrutiny.