September 28: In the gold market last week, international gold prices retreated from resistance and closed lower, failing to extend the prior week's rebound from a bottom and sliding back below the 60-week moving average. Bears held the upper hand, suggesting the outlook remains weak, though the daily chart's repeated bottoming consolidation also points to rebound demand, so short-term price action is expected to stay range-bound with opportunities on both sides.
On the drivers, hawkish comments from numerous Federal Reserve officials during the week and US Treasury bond purchases pushed Treasury yields and the dollar index sharply higher, weighing on gold. However, expectations of geopolitical negotiations, an increase in vessels transiting the strait, and the restart of Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline pressured oil prices, easing inflation concerns and rate-hike expectations, which limited gold's decline late in the week.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the week lower at $4,377.20 per ounce, first touching a weekly high of $4,383.18, then retreated and extended losses to a weekly low of $4,244.21 on Thursday before rebounding from that bottom. On Friday it firmed in choppy trading and closed at $4,284.65, a weekly range of $138.97. Compared with the prior week's close of $4,380.07, it fell $95.42, or 2.18%.
Looking Ahead to This Week
On Monday, September 28, international gold opened lower and extended declines, pressured by elevated Treasury yields and the Fed's hawkish rate-hike outlook, as well as President Trump's rejection last week of Iran's proposal to reopen the strait. Meanwhile, Iran's mission to New York has no plans for a new round of talks with the US, and no substantive US-Iran meeting outcome emerged over the weekend. With diplomatic progress still showing no optimistic tilt, oil prices opened higher, weighing on gold, which opened lower. This leaves short-term risks still skewed toward further declines.
During the day, attention will be on the US September Dallas Fed business activity index, which the market expects to be bullish for gold. Combined with recent range-bound trading, the first half of the week is likely to see consolidation or a rebound. The second half brings the US August core PCE price index annual rate, manufacturing data, and the US nonfarm payrolls reports. With the Fed having completed a rate hike in September and many officials still keeping the possibility of another hike this year on the table, the strength of inflation and employment data will directly affect market pricing of Fed policy. Currently, the market generally expects all data except nonfarm payrolls to be bearish for gold, so this week's price action is still expected to be dominated by range-bound fluctuations. If the data is broadly bearish, gold could retreat to the $4,100 mark or lower; if broadly bullish, a short-term rebound toward $4,700 or higher is possible; if mixed, range-bound correction will continue.
Technical Perspective
On the monthly chart, gold is currently oscillating between the 5-month and 10-month moving averages. Although secondary indicators maintain bearish signals, the main chart's Bollinger Bands trend upward, suggesting months of range-bound correction ahead while the longer-term outlook can still be seen as bullish for new highs. Therefore, while stuck in sideways consolidation, this is also an entry opportunity for long-term bulls.
On the weekly chart, gold remains below the 30-week moving average, and rebound momentum is still limited. This week's opening has pushed it below the 60-week moving average, with bears holding the advantage and the trend biased weak. On the upside, watch resistance at the 60-day or 30-week moving average for shorting opportunities. Before breaking above the 30-week moving average, the bias remains to look for long entries after a pullback to rising trendline support at $4,100 or below $3,900. Conversely, if it rebounds and breaks above the 30-week moving average, it could retest resistance at $4,720 or even the $5,100 mark.
On the daily chart, gold has been repeatedly bottoming and consolidating recently, with short-term momentum calling for a rebound, but the trend has not yet turned strong and upside bearish pressure still holds some advantage. Intraday price action is below the short-term moving averages, while Bollinger Bands are opening upward, suggesting further pullback expectations and momentum remain. On the upside, watch resistance at the short-term moving averages and the 30-day moving average for shorting; on the downside, watch support near last week's low and the lower Bollinger Band for long entries. Below are preliminary long/short reference levels for intraday operations; actual entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications: Gold: downside support near $4,230 or $4,200; upside resistance near $4,290 or $4,310. Silver: downside support at $63.10 or $62.40; upside resistance at $64.50 or $65.00.