In the third quarter, trading of old-crop peanuts gradually wrapped up while new-crop peanuts came to market progressively from north to south, according to Yan Lin, a peanut market analyst at Zhuochuang Information.

Late September brought another rainy phase to Henan production areas, and how long it will last remains to be seen. Barring extreme weather, new peanuts will fully enter the market in October. With short-term supply pressure building, the price center may initially trend lower, though overall supply is expected to narrow year on year, and low prices could trigger some reluctance to sell.

Old-Crop Trading Narrows in Q3 as New-Crop Opening Prices Stay Rational

In July and August, old-crop peanuts in production areas were in a continuous wrap-up phase. Old-crop peanuts in Henan and Shandong stayed at low price levels due to poor quality, while prices in the Northeast saw narrower fluctuations after a sharp decline in the second quarter.

New peanuts began listing from August, and under seasonal effects, new-crop prices first rose and then fell. In early August, new peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei came to market slowly, and in Henan, a small volume of new peanuts listed in mid-August before rainfall slowed the process, which to some extent highlighted the cost-effectiveness of old-crop peanuts. Around mid-August, old-crop peanut prices rose notably and downstream markets restocked moderately.

As weather improved in late August, the scope of new-crop listings gradually expanded. Supply increased and moisture content improved, pushing the overall price center lower. In September, because total new-crop supply was not large, prices fluctuated upward. In Henan's Zhumadian, Xinyang and Nanyang areas, the initial opening price for local Baisha new peanuts was about 9,200-9,500 yuan per tonne, priced by kernel size, while Daza peanuts opened at about 8,200-8,400 yuan per tonne.

As of September 23, the average purchase price of Baisha peanut common kernels in Zhumadian was around 8,200 yuan per tonne, down 12.30% from the initial listing period and down 1.20% from the same period last year. The average purchase price of Daza peanut common kernels in Henan was around 7,700 yuan per tonne, down 8.62% from the initial listing period and down 2.53% from a year earlier. New-crop opening prices are at a five-year low, and current prices are also near the bottom.

Full Market Listing in October Puts Focus on Quality

From late September, Henan production areas were forecast to see rainy weather. As of the September 23 forecast, rainfall in many areas was expected to persist through the National Day holiday period. Wheat-stubble peanuts have generally not yet been dug out, and spring peanut yields per mu are down by 100 jin compared with normal years. Wheat-stubble peanuts are also initially expected to be less plump than last year. If there is no prolonged, continuous rainfall, quality may be noticeably better than last year, but October weather still needs to be watched.

In Liaoning, digging began in mid-to-late September, about a week earlier than last year. Early quality was not ideal, and regional quality differences are now visible, mainly due to low accumulated temperatures and heavy rain earlier and drier weather later. In Jilin, sporadic digging began in late September. Initial observations show sandy land crops are growing well overall, while some low-lying areas are average.

Overall, if there is no unusual weather after National Day, Henan and the Northeast will enter a concentrated drying phase. Attention should be paid to the quality of Henan wheat-stubble peanuts. If rainy weather continues, it cannot be ruled out that early supplies may still see sprouting.

With planted area down and some local yields lower, total supply for the 2026/27 season is initially expected to decline.

Downstream Purchasing Support May Weaken Versus Last Year

After new-crop peanuts came to market, only some local crushing plants and a few major factories have entered the market to buy. Purchase prices have basically followed the market. Some enterprises processed new orders before Mid-Autumn Festival, but as the holiday approached, overall purchasing enthusiasm paused and prices fell. As of late September, most large crushing plants still had no clear purchase news.

In the previous season, oil peanuts were abundant and cheap, and some large-scale crushing plants continued to increase raw material arrivals. According to Zhuochuang Information, some large-scale crushing plants unloaded a total of 1.3952 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, up 29.82% year on year, marking two consecutive seasons of rising purchases. It is initially estimated that without special circumstances, the motivation to buy at high prices may be insufficient.

In wholesale markets and food factories, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival came earlier than usual. From early to mid-September, some wholesale markets made purchases in succession, providing temporary support before new peanuts concentrated on the market. After Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, wholesale markets will enter a seasonal lull. In late September, market purchasing slowed, with many buyers watching from the sidelines at high prices.

Overall, wholesale markets generally maintain a buy-as-needed approach and are highly price-sensitive, while non-essential food demand lacks stickiness.

October is typically the period of the year with the largest supply. Barring extreme weather, new peanuts across production areas will list in a concentrated manner. The sown area for new peanuts in the 2026 season is estimated to fall 5.70% to 4.3092 million hectares. Henan and Hebei both have varying degrees of yield decline. Based on conditions in areas that have already listed, yields in some parts of Liaoning may also decline. The overall tone for new-season supply may be a year-on-year decrease.

However, the listing times for late peanuts in Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong and Henan basically overlap, and prices may see a wave of decline during the concentrated supply period. Still, as prices probe further lows, grassroots farmers may show some resistance to low prices. Once risk decreases, crushing plants and markets will gradually enter the market, and supply with ideal quality may be stored and held firm, creating the possibility of a bottoming-out rebound.

Zhuochuang Information initially expects the average price of Baisha peanut common kernels in Zhumadian in the fourth quarter to range between 7,400 and 8,600 yuan per tonne. Attention should be paid to the impact of October digging and drying weather in Henan on quality. If quality is not ideal, the price gap between good and poor goods may remain wide.