The 2026 National Day holiday is approaching, and many people have already planned their itineraries or even set off on their journeys ahead of time. What will the weather be like during this holiday? What should travelers pay attention to? Let's take a look.

Heavy rain and cooling across multiple regions

According to the National Meteorological Center, this year's West China autumn rain began on September 15. Under the combined influence of warm, moist air currents and active cold air, frequent rainfall will continue in the coming days across West China, the southern part of the Huanghuai region down to the Jiangnan and South China areas. From today (September 30) to October 2, rainfall will generally range from light to moderate, with intense rainfall concentrated in Guizhou, Chongqing, and western Hunan, where some areas will experience heavy rain or even torrential rain. On October 3, warm and moist air currents will strengthen in phases and meet cold air, intensifying precipitation in the south, with moderate to heavy rain expected across a broad area from eastern Yunnan, Guizhou, and northern Hunan to southern Jiangsu-Anhui and Zhejiang, while parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Hunan will see torrential rain.

On the temperature front, today and tomorrow (September 30 to October 1), cold air will continue to affect the central and eastern parts of China, with strong winds in some areas, and temperatures in most of the aforementioned regions dropping by 4°C to 8°C. On the morning of October 1, the 0°C minimum temperature line will push southward to northern Hebei and western Heilongjiang. Today in particular, temperatures will drop by 4°C to 8°C in eastern Northwest China, the central and eastern parts of Northeast China, most of North China, central and northern Shandong, northern and southern Henan, central Hubei, northern Hunan, and northern Anhui, with localized drops exceeding 8°C.

Strongest on record! A super El Niño event is coming

Looking ahead to autumn and winter precipitation, under the influence of El Niño, the key phrase will remain "above normal." According to monitoring by the National Climate Center, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered an El Niño state in May 2026, and sea surface temperatures will continue to fluctuate upward. The peak sea temperature index is expected to appear around November, significantly higher than the historical maximum (the peak of the 2014–2016 super El Niño event), forming the strongest super El Niño event since monitoring records began.

El Niño will impact autumn-winter and next spring-summer climate

The current El Niño will continue to develop and will affect global climate as well as China's climate this autumn and winter and next spring and summer. It is expected that this autumn (October–November), precipitation will be above normal across most of central and eastern China, with Jiangnan and parts of eastern Southwest China seeing 50% to 80% above normal, and the risk of extreme precipitation, flash floods, landslides, and debris flows will be high. The West China autumn rain will generally be above normal, showing a spatial distribution of "more in the south, less in the north." Precipitation in southwestern Inner Mongolia and northeastern Northwest China will be 20% to 50% below normal. One to two typhoons are expected to make landfall or affect China, with relatively strong intensity, and the risk of torrential rain and flooding, strong winds, and storm surges will be high along the coasts of South China and East China.

It is expected that in winter (December 2026 to February 2027), temperatures in China will generally be above normal, with slightly more frequent cold waves and large temperature fluctuations. Precipitation will generally be above normal, and key precautions should be taken against periodic strong cold waves and low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing conditions in the south. It is expected that in the spring and summer of 2027, El Niño will rapidly decay and come to an end, but its impact on China's climate will remain significant, with an increase in extreme weather and climate events, noticeably higher temperatures, and more intense and widespread summer heatwaves.

The National Emergency Broadcasting reminds the public that since many places will experience rain and cooling during the National Day holiday, people can flexibly arrange indoor and outdoor itineraries based on weather conditions, take care to stay warm, and wish everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday.