During the extended holiday, investors in aluminum futures should stay alert to risks stemming from overseas markets, according to analysis from Huatai Futures.

On the spot aluminum front, SMM data showed that the A00 aluminum price in East China stood at 24,110 yuan per tonne, down 60 yuan per tonne from the prior trading day, with the East China spot premium at 40 yuan per tonne, unchanged from the previous session. The A00 aluminum price in Central China was 24,010 yuan per tonne, with the spot premium shifting 0 yuan per tonne from the prior trading day to minus 60 yuan per tonne. In Foshan, the A00 aluminum price was recorded at 24,330 yuan per tonne, down 70 yuan per tonne from the previous trading day, while the spot premium moved down 5 yuan per tonne to 265 yuan per tonne.

On the futures side, the main Shanghai aluminum contract on 29 September 2026 opened at 24,000 yuan per tonne and closed at 24,020 yuan per tonne, down 60 yuan per tonne from the prior trading day, with a high of 24,100 yuan per tonne and a low of 23,950 yuan per tonne. Total daily turnover reached 136,242 lots, while open interest stood at 265,778 lots. In terms of inventories, as of 29 September 2026, SMM statistics put domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory at 674,000 tonnes, down 4,000 tonnes from the previous reading, with warrant inventory at 128,743 tonnes, down 9,445 tonnes from the prior trading day, and LME aluminum inventory at 241,375 tonnes, unchanged from the previous session.

Turning to alumina spot prices, on 29 September 2026 the SMM alumina price was recorded at 2,695 yuan per tonne in Shanxi, 2,670 yuan per tonne in Shandong, 2,705 yuan per tonne in Henan, 2,605 yuan per tonne in Guangxi and 2,735 yuan per tonne in Guizhou, while the Australian alumina FOB price was recorded at 355 US dollars per tonne. On the futures side, the main alumina contract on 29 September 2026 opened at 2,690 yuan per tonne and closed at 2,656 yuan per tonne, down 45 yuan per tonne or 1.67% from the previous settlement, with a high of 2,696 yuan per tonne and a low of 2,639 yuan per tonne. Total daily turnover reached 218,053 lots, with open interest at 266,990 lots.

Regarding aluminum alloy prices, on 29 September 2026 the Baotai civil recycled aluminum purchase price was 18,000 yuan per tonne and the mechanical recycled aluminum purchase price was 18,200 yuan per tonne, both up 100 yuan per tonne from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quote was 24,000 yuan per tonne, unchanged from the previous day. Aluminum alloy inventories showed 17,100 tonnes in social inventory and 67,200 tonnes in plant inventory. On costs and profits, the theoretical total cost was 23,937 yuan per tonne, with theoretical profit of 163 yuan per tonne.

Strategy analysis

For electrolytic aluminum, stronger-than-expected US PMI data pushed US long-term bond yields to new highs, once again applying macroeconomic pressure that weighed on aluminum prices and triggered a pullback, although the downside remained limited in the near term thanks to fundamental support. Over the longer term, overseas restarts and new capacity create expectations of oversupply, which caps the upside for aluminum prices, though the actual extent of oversupply is difficult to predict at present and may give rise to periodic mismatches between supply and demand. Downstream operating rates are currently rising month on month as the market transitions into the peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum remains persistently high, and the absolute inventory level is still expected to fall to a relatively low point. Fluctuations in crude oil prices will repeatedly disturb rate-hike expectations going forward, increasing price volatility and uncertainty. With pre-holiday restocking in the spot market, social inventory continued to decline, but a short-term inventory build is expected after the National Day holiday, and investors should also watch for sudden overseas risks while looking for opportunities to buy for hedging purposes.

For alumina, Xinjiang's regular tender procurement of alumina was priced at 2,960 yuan per tonne on a delivered basis, down 10 yuan per tonne from the previous session. The spot market has still shown little improvement, with domestic supply remaining in surplus. The last new alumina plant in Guangxi began production last week, social inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers showed no willingness to restock before the holiday. Cost-side support remains solid, with August bauxite imports falling both year on year and month on month. The current Guinea bauxite CIF quote has been raised to 73-74 US dollars per tonne, and domestic alumina plants, holding ample raw material inventories, remain reluctant to accept higher prices. That said, costs have not yet placed excessive pressure on alumina plants, and after the futures pullback, the market is once again testing the support strength of the marginal highest cash cost. Alumina is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation, with future attention on Guinea bauxite supply conditions.

Risks

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