CITIC Securities Research has released a strategy report titled "A-Share Strategy Focus: The Final Offensive Window of the Year," recommending investors actively seize this period. The report's review indicates that the first stock price peak in an industrial super cycle is often accompanied by the relative outperformance of institutional stocks peaking, after which small-cap stocks not heavily held by institutions tend to drive the second peak. Examples include 2009, Q4 2015, and Q2 2022.

Historical data shows that from September 15, 2015, to the end of that year, portfolios with high institutional holdings gained 54.1% cumulatively, underperforming low-holding portfolios at 73.3% and low-holding small-cap portfolios at 83.2%. During the Q3 2009 rebound, the proportions of stocks breaking previous highs were 58.6% for high-holding, 73.3% for low-holding, and 76.5% for low-holding small-cap portfolios.

Regarding positioning, based on channel surveys by CITIC Securities, as of September 11, active private equity funds had a sample position of 73.0%, a slight increase from the previous week. This level is below the historical median of 76.4%, placing it around the 29th percentile since the end of 2020.

On liquidity, the report notes that the Federal Reserve has shown a tough stance on inflation control, which is likely to create a tighter macro liquidity environment at least within this year. As of September 18, the implied probability of another Fed rate hike this year has reached 90.1%, with the current 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) implied inflation rate at 2.33%.

Addressing the AI narrative, the report mentions that AI computing power investment has not slowed, but market expectations for the commercialization space of frontier model companies are adjusting. Since June, the excess return of IGV relative to SOXX has reached 35.7%. Approximately 80% of enterprise revenue for OpenAI and Anthropic comes from their top 1% of customers, whose spending intensity is 10.7 times that of enterprises in the top 10th percentile and 576 times that of median enterprises. Furthermore, in August, per-capita AI spending by the top 1% of enterprises decreased by 9.7% month-over-month.

Disclaimer: This content and data are compiled from public information by the original source and do not constitute investment advice. Please verify before use.