Commodities Wrap: Crude Edges Higher, Base Metals Fall Broadly, Gold Slumps

Deep News
Sep 29

Oil prices rose slightly as news about U.S.-Iran talks failed to meaningfully ease supply concerns. Base metals fell broadly as traders assessed the demand outlook after pressure on industrial enterprise profit growth. Gold slumped as the U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz kept energy costs elevated and further increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.

Crude: Oil edges up as U.S.-Iran talks fail to ease supply worries

Oil prices rose slightly, with strong spot demand tugging against easing Middle East supply disruptions and progress toward reopening the strait. Still, repeated disappointments over hopes previously dashed left traders skeptical. WTI settled below $93 a barrel after choppy trading, having risen as much as 4.5% during the session. A U.S. official said Trump is willing to grant Iran sanctions relief and unfreeze frozen funds based on concrete progress on Iran's nuclear issue. Traders carefully parsed information about a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Trump said the U.S. and Iran held talks on Monday through intermediaries. That came after the U.S. president rejected a proposal from Tehran. "Without a concrete deal or an end to the conflict, the market is quickly fading headline reactions, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for higher oil prices to retreat," said Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline was said to have resumed oil exports after repairs were completed, pressuring prices. Although negotiations have resumed, the fundamental outlook is becoming increasingly bullish. Key gauges of supply tightness have risen sharply in recent days, signaling strong demand for crude that can be delivered quickly. "With no clear end to the Middle East conflict, the risk balance remains skewed toward higher oil prices," said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. November WTI rose 0.2% to settle at $92.60 a barrel. November Brent rose 0.9% to settle at $105.28 a barrel. The November futures contract expires on Wednesday. The more actively traded December contract settled at $97.83 a barrel.

Base metals

Copper and other base metals declined as traders assessed the demand outlook after pressure on industrial enterprise profit growth. Although signs of tightening supply supported copper prices at high levels, traders paid close attention to macroeconomic drivers. Consumption and investment weakened, business confidence was subdued, and fiscal spending remained restrained. In the United States, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in October, which typically dampens demand for industrial commodities. At the close, LME copper fell 1.4% to $14,413 a ton; LME aluminum fell 0.5% to $3,251.50 a ton; LME nickel fell 0.9% to $16,179 a ton; LME zinc fell 1.2% to $3,852.50 a ton; LME tin fell 1% to $53,786 a ton; LME lead fell 1.4% to $1,902 a ton.

Precious metals

Gold fell to its lowest level in more than seven weeks as the U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz kept energy costs elevated and further increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates. Spot gold fell more than 4% at one point, touching a low of $4,111.01 an ounce, while silver, platinum and palladium also dropped sharply. U.S. Treasury yields surged across the curve, with the 10-year yield hitting a nearly 20-year high, weakening the appeal of non-yielding precious metals. As of 4:37 p.m. New York time, spot gold fell 3.9% to $4,116.08 an ounce. Spot silver fell 5.7% to $60.6323 an ounce.

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