Last night, rumbling thunder rolled through as the high temperature warning was lifted in response. Rain accompanying the weak cold front brought some relief from the heat, but a dramatic seasonal shift in temperatures is still on the way.

During the latter part of the holiday, the main body of cold air will push southward, and Shaoguan will see not only maximum temperatures dropping into the 20s but minimum temperatures falling into the teens as well.

Cold air moves south, bringing thunderstorms and strong winds to many parts of Guangdong

Provincial meteorological authorities forecast that on October 2, most of northern Guangdong, the Pearl River Delta, and eastern Guangdong will be cloudy to overcast with moderate to heavy thunderstorms, with localized rainstorms or severe rainstorms. Some areas will experience short-duration strong winds of around force 8 during thunderstorms. The remaining areas will be cloudy with scattered thunderstorms and localized heavy rain or rainstorms.

Maximum temperature distribution: 26 to 30 degrees Celsius in northern Guangdong and northern parts of eastern Guangdong, 34 to 36 degrees Celsius in Zhanjiang and Maoming, and 31 to 33 degrees Celsius in other areas.

On October 3, Shaoguan, Qingyuan, northern Pearl River Delta, and southern coastal areas will see thunderstorms with localized heavy or severe rainstorms, while other areas will have scattered thunderstorms, with some places experiencing force 8 thunderstorms and strong winds. Apart from western Guangdong, high temperatures will ease in most areas. Maximum temperature distribution: 28 to 30 degrees Celsius in northern Guangdong, 33 to 35 degrees Celsius in Zhanjiang and Maoming, and 30 to 32 degrees Celsius in other areas.

On October 4, southern areas will have thunderstorms with localized rainstorms, while other areas will see scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rain. Maximum temperatures: 22 to 26 degrees Celsius in northern parts of northern Guangdong, 32 to 34 degrees Celsius in Zhanjiang and Maoming, and 29 to 31 degrees Celsius in other areas.

On October 5, coastal areas in the south will see showers turning cloudy, while other areas will be cloudy to clear. Maximum temperatures: 22 to 26 degrees Celsius in northern parts of Shaoguan and Qingyuan, 27 to 29 degrees Celsius in the rest of northern Guangdong, and 29 to 31 degrees Celsius in eastern Guangdong, the Pearl River Delta, and western Guangdong.

From October 6 to 7, most of the province will be clear to partly cloudy. The temperature difference between day and night will increase, with cool mornings and evenings in northern Guangdong. Maximum temperatures: between 26 and 31 degrees Celsius in most areas.

Cold front arrives as expected: rain first, then clear skies in Shaoguan

The Shaoguan Meteorological Observatory forecasts that the early part of the holiday will see frequent showers in Shaoguan, with relatively heavy rain in some areas, and high temperatures will ease. Travelers should pay attention to driving safety. In the later part of the holiday (the 5th to the 7th), conditions will turn cloudy to clear, with generally comfortable conditions and cool mornings and evenings. People should adjust clothing accordingly.

Specific weather forecast: On October 2, overcast with light rain and localized moderate rain, 24 to 30 degrees Celsius. On October 3, overcast with light rain, 24 to 30 degrees Celsius. On October 4, overcast with light to moderate rain, 23 to 27 degrees Celsius. On October 5, overcast turning cloudy, 19 to 27 degrees Celsius. On October 6, cloudy turning clear, 17 to 27 degrees Celsius. On October 7, clear, 16 to 28 degrees Celsius.

Strongest El Nino expected to affect China's autumn and winter

According to monitoring by the National Climate Center, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered an El Nino state in May 2026. The sea surface temperature index continued to rise rapidly thereafter, with a summer average (June to August) of 2.09 degrees Celsius. By August, the index had reached 2.59 degrees Celsius. Since September, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have continued to warm. The monitoring area sea surface temperature indices for the first through fifth pentads were 2.70, 2.94, 3.01, 3.01, and 3.02 degrees Celsius respectively, marking the first time since monitoring records began that pentad and ten-day scale sea surface temperature indices have exceeded 3 degrees Celsius.

The National Climate Center predicts that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to fluctuate upward, with the peak index expected around November, reaching 3.2 to 3.5 degrees Celsius. This would be significantly higher than the historical maximum of 2.8 degrees Celsius recorded during the 2014 to 2016 super strong El Nino event, forming the strongest super El Nino event since monitoring records began.

Since monitoring records began, there have been three previous super strong El Nino events, occurring in 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998, and 2014 to 2016. The current sea surface temperature monitoring index and its warming rate are significantly higher than the corresponding levels of those three events.

The rapid development of El Nino has had a clear impact on China's climate during this year's flood season, with precipitation in the central and eastern regions generally showing a pattern of more in the north and south and less in the middle, and flooding outweighing drought. The current El Nino will continue to develop and will affect global climate as well as China's climate in autumn and winter this year and spring and summer next year.