On September 28, all three major indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.67% to 3823 points and the ChiNext Index plunging 4.53%. More than 4,500 individual stocks declined across the market, with only defensive sectors such as petrochemicals, utilities, and agriculture bucking the trend to close higher. Facing sustained pre-holiday adjustments, multiple public and private fund institutions have successively voiced their views, generally believing that the current decline is mainly driven by trading-related factors and expressing optimism about the post-holiday market, with "holding shares through the holiday" becoming the mainstream recommendation.
Golden Eagle Fund: Negative Factors Largely Priced In, Patient Bottom-Fishing May Bring Surprises
Golden Eagle Fund pointed out in its latest market outlook that current cautious sentiment mainly stems from three factors: first, A-shares have not fully emerged from the shadow of the July selloff, with leveraged funds departing without showing significant return, and the lack of incremental capital making rebounds difficult to sustain; second, overseas technology hotspots have not yet formed effective mapping in A-shares, leaving on-market capital without a clear offensive mainline; third, multiple key macroeconomic data releases during the long holiday including US September nonfarm payrolls, along with uncertainties such as US-Iran negotiations, may continue to ferment and significantly suppress risk appetite.
However, Golden Eagle Fund believes that the pre-holiday decline in A-shares may be mainly driven by trading factors, and the current market has already priced in geopolitical, oil price, and high interest rate negative factors to a considerable extent, so post-holiday market rebounds can still be expected. The central bank will conduct overnight reverse repurchases from September 28 to October 8, raising the single-day operation cap to 1 trillion yuan to support quarter-end and holiday liquidity. The China-US heads of state meeting reached an eight-point consensus, including recognition of a $30 billion reciprocal tax reduction arrangement and establishment of an artificial intelligence dialogue mechanism, which helps stabilize economic and trade expectations and provides catalysts for risk appetite recovery after the holiday.
"Looking back at A-share history, if the market declines in the 5-10 trading days before the holiday, the probability of gains after the holiday tends to be higher," Golden Eagle Fund stated. As non-performance-related concerns are largely priced into valuations, combined with reduced uncertainty after the holiday and approaching third-quarter earnings expectations, a new round of repair and阶段性 rebound window is expected to form. In terms of allocation, short-term attention is recommended on oversold technology rebounds, while the medium-term barbell strategy continues, with the technology direction focusing on optical communications, PCB, advanced processes, and semiconductor equipment—core varieties with strong third-quarter earnings certainty—while the value direction focuses on oil and gas exploration, coal, shipping ports, white goods, dairy products, and other high-dividend, low-valuation sub-sectors.
Yang Delong: A New Round of Rebound Expected in Q4
Yang Delong, Chief Economist and Fund Manager at Qianhai Open Source Fund, more explicitly declared that "a new round of rebound is expected in the fourth quarter." He stated that the market has already experienced significant adjustments before the holiday, and a rebound is expected after the holiday. The market went through an adjustment trend in the third quarter, especially with the July selloff fully releasing risks, and the real rebound may not officially begin until the fourth quarter. Yang Delong cited Buffett's metaphor of "opening a casino next to a church," reviewing previous warnings about the technology bubble, and pointed out that the current market is in the midst of a global AI technology revolution. The AI technology development trend is unstoppable, but technology stocks will also experience significant declines after being bid up too high, and it is not yet time for the technology bubble to burst. He judges that technology stock performance will diverge significantly in the fourth quarter, with technology stocks that can truly secure orders and deliver on earnings likely to see opportunities, while theme stocks and concept stocks without earnings support will struggle to perform. Chips and computing power are expected to remain the leading sectors in the fourth quarter, while humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, innovative drugs, and commercial aerospace may also have rotation opportunities.
On the policy front, Yang Delong believes that policy support for this round of market movement remains unchanged, and fiscal and monetary policy support may intensify in the fourth quarter. Federal Reserve rate hikes will not change the People's Bank of China's monetary policy stance of maintaining low interest rates and ample liquidity. "Many people become overly pessimistic during market declines, even shouting 'the bear is here,' but I think there is no need to be overly pessimistic." He advises investors to adhere to three principles: resolutely avoid leverage, maintain appropriate positions, and diversify allocations without betting on a single sector.
Huiquan Fund: Pre-Holiday Volume Contraction Aligns with Calendar Effect, Watch Three Clues
Huiquan Fund summarized last week's market characteristics with "pre-holiday volume contraction adjustment" in its weekly market review. Last week, major broad-based indices mostly declined, with only the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 bucking the trend to close higher. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3900 points, with average daily turnover of approximately 1.91 trillion yuan for the week, shrinking below 1.8 trillion yuan in the final two trading days. Pre-holiday risk aversion characteristics were evident, with only the consumer style recording positive returns, large-cap value outperforming growth, and stocks with market caps below 10 billion yuan accounting for nearly 78% of limit-up stocks, indicating that capital favored small-cap theme speculation in the volume-contracted environment. On the capital flow front, global funds' net flow to A-shares turned to net outflow of $1.069 billion, margin funds returned but ETF signals were cautious, and the semiconductor direction received contrarian additions. Low-valuation sectors such as real estate and coal led gains contrarily, while technology growth was generally under pressure.
Huiquan Fund pointed out that from a historical perspective, pre-holiday volume contraction adjustments align with the calendar effect of weak pre-holiday market performance in history. Historical data shows that weak pre-holiday performance followed by post-holiday recovery has occurred frequently. The clues the market is watching mainly include three aspects: first, the technology growth direction, where the AI industry trend and prosperity remain solid, with semiconductors, optical communications, and servers receiving considerable attention; second, rising expectations for stable growth policies, with the real estate chain and "six networks" construction-related directions receiving policy catalysts; third, core resource-related directions such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals being mentioned. Overall, the market is exhibiting volume-contracted oscillation and structural divergence under the interweaving of multiple factors.
Mingze Investment Hu Mohan: High Win Rate on First Day and First Week After Holiday, Recommend Holding Shares Through Holiday
Hu Mohan, Fund Manager at Mingze Investment, directly addressed investors' confusion about "holding shares or holding cash." He stated that pre-holiday capital may still have inertial contraction, but historical experience shows a high win rate on the first day and first week after National Day. Combined with external uncertainties landing, the trend around National Day is expected to be relatively optimistic, and holding shares through the holiday is more recommended. In terms of allocation, Hu Mohan recommends "light on indices, heavy on structure, balanced allocation." On the growth side, focus on core assets with earnings delivery, healthy odds and chip structure for bottom-fishing absorption; on the defensive side, focus on low-valuation, high-dividend, and ample free cash flow assets. He also reminds that attention should be paid to the systemic impact of sustained high oil prices in the future.
From the comprehensive views of multiple public and private fund institutions, their judgment on this round of pre-holiday adjustment is relatively consistent: under the dominance of short-term risk aversion, market trading is light and risk appetite is difficult to systematically elevate, with pre-holiday conditions likely to continue in an oscillating consolidation pattern; however, the current market has already priced in negative factors such as geopolitics, oil prices, and high interest rates to a considerable extent. After the holiday, with uncertainties landing, third-quarter earnings expectations approaching, and policy catalysts emerging, the market is expected to welcome a repair window. In terms of allocation direction, institutions generally recommend balanced allocation, balancing technology growth with low-valuation defense. The technology direction focuses on core varieties with strong earnings certainty such as the computing power chain and semiconductors, while the value direction focuses on high dividends, low valuations, and consumer blue chips, while remaining vigilant against disturbances to market sentiment from the overseas high interest rate environment and geopolitical risks.