Samsung Electronics executives expect high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to keep increasing its share of global DRAM wafer capacity, squeezing traditional memory supply and driving overall memory prices higher.

According to Reuters, Samsung Electronics Executive Vice President Kim Taewoo said HBM is expected to account for nearly 30% of the global DRAM industry's total wafer capacity next year (2027), up from about 20% currently. Kim Taewoo also noted that HBM and traditional DRAM share the same wafer capacity, so HBM's continued expansion will further compress the supply space for traditional DRAM.

Market research firm TrendForce expects that, driven by sustained growth in AI server demand, competition between HBM and traditional DRAM for advanced process nodes and wafer capacity will continue. Combined with the time needed for next-generation products to ramp up yields and output, the memory market supply is likely to remain tight in 2027. TrendForce has raised its 2027 HBM price outlook, expecting the blended average selling price (Blended ASP) to jump 121% year over year.

Samsung accelerates HBM capacity expansion, with HBM4 series leading shipments

At the company level, Samsung's HBM capacity expansion is also significant. According to industry estimates cited by Seoul Economic Daily, Samsung's average monthly HBM wafer starts are expected to rise from about 180,000 this year to about 250,000 in 2027, an increase of nearly 40%.

In terms of product mix, as HBM4E mass production gradually scales up, HBM4 series products are expected to account for about 80% of Samsung's HBM shipments next year, a sharp increase from about 40% this year. This structural shift means that higher-priced products will carry significantly more weight in the shipment mix, further supporting an upward shift in the overall average selling price.

HBM wafer consumption efficiency is three times that of traditional DRAM, amplifying the supply squeeze effect

The impact of HBM on traditional DRAM supply is further amplified by its higher wafer consumption characteristics. According to data from ijiwei, the wafer area consumed by HBM is about three times that of traditional DRAM - the wafer area occupied by a single HBM chip is roughly equivalent to the area needed to produce 3GB of DDR5.

This means that when HBM's share of DRAM capacity rises from 20% to 30%, the actual squeeze on traditional DRAM supply could be two to three times that proportional change. For downstream markets such as consumer electronics, PCs, and servers that rely on traditional DRAM, the pressure from tightening supply may be more significant than the headline numbers suggest.

Supply remains tight, 2027 HBM price outlook raised sharply

The structural shift in capacity and persistently strong demand together form the core drivers of rising memory market prices. TrendForce noted that the persistence of supply constraints, the rising share of high-priced products such as HBM4, and the gradual mass production of HBM4E in the second half of 2027 are all key factors supporting the upward revision of price expectations.

TrendForce has accordingly raised its 2027 HBM blended average selling price forecast, expecting a year-over-year increase of 121%. On the supplier side, TrendForce also observed that major memory manufacturers have generally taken a tougher stance in 2027 HBM pricing negotiations, further confirming market expectations of tight supply.