Gulf states have rebuilt their oil export infrastructure so it no longer depends on a single shipping route.

After the US-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply. Analysts say that, disrupted by the Iran conflict, major Middle Eastern producers turned to alternative pipelines, ports and ship-to-ship transfers to work around the blockage, and Middle East crude exports have now recovered to pre-war levels.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints. After the US and Iran went to war on February 28, oil flows through the strait plunged.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, along with other major Gulf producers such as the UAE, were forced to reroute, shipping crude through pipelines and backup ports that bypass the strait. Although some of the new routes ran into problems, including an attack on a key Saudi pipeline and threats by Iran-backed militants to vessels on another shipping channel, producers found workarounds and crude exports rebounded.

Goldman Sachs estimates that in the week through Monday, crude exports from Persian Gulf producers reached 19 million barrels per day. Nearly nine-tenths of the overall recovery in Gulf oil exports in September came from crude, helped by higher shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's ability to shut down oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is crumbling; since the US reimposed a maritime blockade in July, Iran has been unable to move its own crude through the waterway.

Analysts at JPMorgan say that with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline recently resuming flows, the 10-day average of Middle East crude exports has climbed back to 17.5 million barrels per day, reaching 98% of pre-war levels.

Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler also shows a strong export rebound. So far this month, Gulf crude shipments have reached at least 16.5 million barrels per day; excluding Iran, that figure is on par with pre-war levels. That is 10.5 million barrels per day more than the March monthly average, when exports were disrupted after the war broke out. The export recovery has eased concerns about global supply, limiting the rise in oil prices.

The November Brent contract, due to expire on Wednesday, rose 0.5% to $103.05 a barrel; the more actively traded December contract gained 1.5% to $97.64 a barrel. The front-month November West Texas Intermediate contract rose 1.3% to $90.49 a barrel.

Still, US-Iran talks aimed at ending the war have stalled, and Yemen's Houthi militants continue to pose threats in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, leaving the market under the risk of renewed damage to shipping and regional energy infrastructure, which could push up energy costs and add to global inflationary pressure.

The improving export data reflects producers' constant adjustments to keep oil flowing.

A Kpler analyst said: "This export recovery has already weathered three shocks: pressure on the Red Sea route, the collapse of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, and the September attack on the East-West pipeline. Each time a shock hit, crude cargoes switched routes."

Before the war, about 83% of the Gulf's crude was shipped out through the Strait of Hormuz. In September, about 40% of crude left the Gulf without passing through the strait. That created three export channels: according to Kpler data, about 60% of crude in September still moved through the Strait of Hormuz; 23% was loaded outside the strait, mainly along the Gulf of Oman; and 17% was shipped out via the Red Sea.

Even crude that still travels through the Strait of Hormuz no longer uses the same tanker for the whole journey. Ship-to-ship relay transfers have become increasingly common: a tanker loads oil inside the Gulf and sails through the Strait of Hormuz, then transfers the crude to another tanker off Oman or the UAE, with the second vessel continuing on to Asia or Europe.

Iran is the sole exception. Satellite data analyzed by Goldman Sachs shows that in September Iran had no seaborne crude exports and no exports of major refined products. Kpler data shows Iran's oil shipments fell to nearly zero after the US imposed its blockade. Before the war, Iran exported about 1.7 million barrels of crude per day.

Meanwhile, although crude supply has largely returned to normal, supplies of refined products for consumers and industrial users remain tight. Goldman Sachs estimates that exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are only about half of the 2025 average. JPMorgan believes Middle East refined product exports have reached only 58% of 2025 levels, hit by damaged infrastructure and higher risks in transporting flammable and explosive goods.

Analysts say the next test is whether this new export system can handle larger volumes and withstand the next supply disruption. Another US-Iran exchange of fire could again disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; strikes on pipelines and other export infrastructure would also undermine these alternative routes that bypass the strait.

Risks are already emerging beyond the Gulf, with Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen stepping up attacks in the Red Sea, expanding their control along Yemen's coast and holding sway over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.