US manufacturers reported more widespread input price increases in September, and this cost pressure could directly heighten Bitcoin's financing risk by fueling expectations of higher interest rates, hindering its rebound toward the $85,000 target.

Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM.US) on October 1 showed that the September manufacturing price index climbed to 77.9, up sharply by 6.8 points from 71.1 in August. Notably, this index is not an inflation rate but rather a measure reflecting the proportion of companies experiencing price increases: 58.6% of surveyed firms reported rising input prices, compared with 46.2% in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, the new orders index stood at 55.3, and the employment index registered 52.7.

Woofun AI compiled data indicating that strong manufacturing activity interwoven with intensifying cost pressures complicates the policy case for lowering interest rates. The index is calculated by adding the percentage of companies reporting price increases to half the percentage of companies reporting unchanged prices. The reading of 77.9 highlights the breadth of cost pass-through rather than a 77.9% inflation level.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC.US) raised the target rate range by 0.25 percentage points on September 16 to between 3.75% and 4%. New York Fed President William Williams (NYFR.US) said on September 29 that another rate hike later this year could be appropriate if the economy meets forecasts, but stressed there is currently no indication that price fluctuations will evolve into persistent inflation.

Federal Reserve theory holds that policy changes affect short-term borrowing costs and short-term US Treasury yields, while policy expectations influence long-term interest rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.US) is scheduled to release September employment data on October 2, and the ISM manufacturing employment index cannot substitute for this national statistic.

If employment data reinforces rate hike expectations, financing costs and high returns on interest-bearing dollar assets will dampen risk appetite; conversely, if short-term US Treasury yields or expected policy rates decline, the transmission effect will weaken. In February 2023, New York Fed (NYFR.US) research found no systematic response by Bitcoin to monetary policy and macroeconomic news.

The real test lies in changes in rate expectations and whether Bitcoin responds accordingly, rather than simply assuming that rising manufacturing costs must lead to price declines. Friday's employment data will be the deciding factor: if it reinforces rate hike expectations, financing risk and high return levels pose serious obstacles; if expectations ease, pressure diminishes. Investors need to comprehensively interpret macroeconomic news to judge how monetary policy direction affects borrowing costs and returns on interest-bearing dollar assets, thereby assessing the possibility of a systematic response facing Bitcoin.