On September 29, gold prices staged a significant decline. The market opened with a sharp gap down, breaking below the 4,200 threshold in early trading. A short position entered at 4,190 was stopped out at 4,180. Following the break below 4,180, a new short position was promptly established. During the European and U.S. sessions, prices continued to retreat, touching a low of 4,110. The short position was closed near 4,130 for a profit, resulting in a net gain of nearly $40 after accounting for the earlier loss. Prices stabilized somewhat late in the session, with gold ultimately closing at 4,115, forming a large bearish candle on the daily chart.

On Tuesday, September 29, despite the dollar not surging significantly, gold prices fell nearly 4%. This indicates that the selling pressure stemmed not primarily from an inverse currency relationship, but from a repricing of the "opportunity cost of holding gold." The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since June 2007; the 30-year yield briefly approached 5.5%, a high not seen since 2004. The 10-year real yield surged even higher, setting a record since the Lehman crisis. Gold pays no interest. When risk-free returns can reach 5%+, capital naturally asks: "Why should I hold a metal that doesn't pay interest?" In short, this wave was not sentiment-driven selling—it was valuation-driven selling. Additionally, gold fell even as conflict persisted in the Middle East, a logic we have discussed many times before. The current market's primary trading theme is "interest rates," not "safe-haven demand."

From a technical perspective, intraday attention remains on the 4,110-4,100 zone to the downside. There is still a possibility of a breakdown, but a direct further plunge would not be beneficial for trading operations. If intraday price action sees a rebound off the 4,110-4,100 area to confirm the key support broken yesterday, it would be more advantageous for operations when the market later resumes its decline. On the upside, initial focus is on the battle around 4,140, where yesterday's decline first halted. However, the subsequent rebound high was near 4,170, and the upper boundary pressure of the hourly chart range is also near this level. Therefore, 4,170 can be viewed as a key resistance level intraday. If a rebound reaches this level without breaking through and shows signs of resistance, a short entry can be moderately considered. Above that, strong resistance is seen at the trendline pressure zone of 4,190-4,200. However, if a rebound truly reaches this level, the impact of yesterday's large bearish candle would be significantly diminished. In summary, after a sharp drop, do not chase shorts; wait for stabilization signals before entering. This week is data-intensive, so position sizes should be kept below 30% of normal levels. Do not take heavy positions betting on direction ahead of data releases. Of course, gold traders who wish to act can enter a light short position near 4,140, targeting a short-term move. If price stabilizes above 4,140, one can reverse and go long within the range.

Therefore, intraday trading recommendations: Gold: Short at 4,135-4,136, stop loss at 4,141, target 4,100-4,080. If price stabilizes above 4,140, reverse and exit the short to go long, targeting 4,180-4,200.

Key economic data and events to watch today, Tuesday, September 29, 2026: 21:00 U.S. July FHFA House Price Index MoM; 21:00 U.S. July S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY; 22:00 U.S. August JOLTs Job Openings; 22:00 U.S. September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; next day 01:00 Fed's Goolsbee speaks; next day 01:00 OpenAI CEO Altman delivers a speech; next day 01:30 Fed's Musalem speaks; next day 02:00 Fed's Williams speaks.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this information do so at their own risk.