According to Woofun AI, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) market is facing a dual squeeze from shrinking liquidity and price resistance. Although the consecutive inflow streak has now extended to 8 trading days, the daily net inflow on September 28 dropped sharply to $31 million, and this weak buying interest is insufficient to break Bitcoin's stagnation below the key $84,000 resistance level, with signs of cooling institutional demand becoming pronounced.

Looking at the performance of individual institutional products, capital divergence has intensified. BlackRock's IBIT led with a net inflow of $54.84 million, adding approximately 657 BTC, bringing its holdings back above 800,000 coins for the first time since May 26; the Grayscale Mini Trust saw an inflow of $10.32 million. In contrast, Fidelity's FBTC experienced an outflow of $10.9 million, and Grayscale's GBTC saw an outflow of $23.19 million, while the remaining products showed no change in net flows. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that since the near $1 billion peak on September 21, the inflow situation has continued to deteriorate, with the current cumulative net inflow standing at only about 97% of that peak value.

Despite the weak single-day data, last week's cumulative net inflow still reached $2.4 billion, setting a record high for 2026 and the largest weekly inflow since October 2025. This strong weekly performance reversed the approximately $5.8 billion in cumulative losses from July, bringing year-to-date cumulative inflows to $2.73 billion and 2026 cumulative net inflows to approximately $1.01 billion.

At the market structure level, supply resistance has become the core variable. Glassnode points out that the $84,000-$85,000 range is an area of highly concentrated supply from long-term holders, with their holdings exceeding any other price range on the cost distribution chart. Bitcoin has pulled back from above $87,000 last week to this level, facing potential selling pressure. Last week, ETF demand absorbed the supply, supporting a gain of approximately 4%, but buying strength has since decayed substantially. Monday's $31 million net inflow equates to less than 400 BTC, whereas the near $1 billion inflow in early last week corresponded to more than 11,000 BTC. This magnitude of disparity indicates that current institutional purchasing power is significantly insufficient to directly absorb selling pressure in the face of a dense supply zone.

The next few trading days will be particularly critical, as the market will test the ability of capital to return. If ETF buying willingness rebounds, it could help absorb the supply pressure in the $84,000-$85,000 range and reopen an upward trajectory; conversely, if net inflows continue to shrink or turn negative, Bitcoin may find it difficult to break through the current price range and could fall into consolidation. This marks another severe test of the sustainability of institutional capital flows following July's losses.