Peanut market analyst Yan Lin from Zhuochuang Information.

In Q3, old peanut trading gradually wrapped up, while new peanuts were listed from north to south. In late September, Henan production areas encountered another rainy period, and the duration remains to be watched. Excluding extreme weather, new peanuts will be fully listed in October. Under the pressure of short-term supply increase, the price center may initially trend downward, but overall supply is expected to narrow year-on-year, and low prices may trigger some reluctance to sell.

Old peanut price movements narrowed in Q3, while new peanut opening prices were rational. Entering Q3, production areas were in a continuous wrapping-up state for old peanuts during July-August. Old peanuts in Henan and Shandong remained at low prices due to unsatisfactory quality. After a sharp decline in Q2, price fluctuations of old peanuts in Northeast China narrowed. New peanuts gradually entered the market starting in August. Under seasonal effects, new peanut prices first rose and then fell.

In early August, new peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei entered the market slowly. In Henan, a small amount of new peanuts was listed in mid-August, but rainfall slowed the listing process, which to some extent highlighted the cost-effectiveness of old peanuts. Around mid-August, old peanut prices rose noticeably, and downstream markets replenished inventories in moderation. As weather improved in late August, the scope of new peanut listings gradually expanded. With increased supply and improved dryness, the overall price center shifted downward.

In September, because the overall supply of new peanuts was not large, prices showed a volatile upward trend. In Henan's Zhumadian, Xinyang, and Nanyang areas, the initial opening price for local Baisha new peanuts was about 9,200-9,500 yuan/ton, with pricing based on kernel size; the initial price for Daza peanuts was about 8,200-8,400 yuan/ton. As of September 23, the average purchase price of Baisha peanut common kernels in Zhumadian was around 8,200 yuan/ton, down 12.30% from the initial listing period and down 1.20% from the same period last year; the average purchase price of Daza peanut common kernels in Henan was around 7,700 yuan/ton, down 8.62% from the initial listing period and down 2.53% from the same period last year. New peanut opening prices were at a low level in five years, and current prices are also at a low point.

October enters the stage of full listing in production areas; attention should be paid to specific quality. Starting in late September, Henan production areas forecast rainy weather. As of the September 23 weather forecast, rainfall in many areas was expected to continue through the National Day holiday period. At present, wheat stubble peanuts have generally not been dug out. The overall yield per unit area of spring peanuts is down by 100 jin per mu compared with normal years, and the plumpness of wheat stubble peanuts is initially expected to be lower than last year. If there is no sustained long-term rainfall, quality may be noticeably better than last year, but October weather still needs to be monitored.

In Liaoning, digging began gradually in mid-to-late September, about one week earlier than last year. Early quality was not ideal. Currently, listing quality differs among regions, mainly due to low accumulated temperature and excessive rain earlier, followed by relatively dry weather later. In Jilin, sporadic digging began in late September. Initial observations show that sandy land generally has ideal growth, while some low-lying areas have average growth. Overall, if there is no unusual weather after National Day, Henan and Northeast China will enter the concentrated drying stage. Attention should be paid to the quality of wheat stubble peanuts in Henan. If rainy weather continues, it cannot be ruled out that early sources may still sprout.

With area declining combined with lower yields per unit area in some regions, total supply for the 26/27 production season is initially expected to decline.

Downstream purchasing support may weaken compared with the same period. After new-season peanuts entered the market, only some local oil mills and a few large plants have entered the market to purchase. Overall purchase prices have basically remained market-oriented. Some enterprises processed new orders before the Mid-Autumn Festival. As the holiday approached, overall purchasing enthusiasm paused and prices declined. As of late September, most large oil mills still had no clear purchasing news.

In the previous production season, oil peanuts were sufficient and prices were low, and raw material arrivals at some large-scale oil mills continued to increase. According to Zhuochuang Information, in the 25/26 production season, some large-scale oil mills unloaded a cumulative 1.3952 million tons, up 29.82% year-on-year, marking two consecutive production seasons of rising purchases. It is initially estimated that, absent special circumstances, the motivation for high-priced purchasing may be insufficient.

In wholesale markets and food factories, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival came earlier than usual. Starting in early-to-mid September, some wholesale markets gradually made purchases, providing temporary support to the market before new peanuts were concentrated in large volumes. After Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, wholesale markets will enter a periodic off-season. In late September, market purchasing slowed, and many adopted a wait-and-see approach toward high prices. Overall, wholesale markets generally maintain a buy-as-needed pattern, are highly price-sensitive, and demand for non-essential food lacks stickiness.

October generally enters the stage with the largest supply of the year. Excluding extreme weather, new peanuts in various production areas will be listed in a concentrated manner. The sown area of new peanuts for the 2026 production season is estimated to decline by 5.70% to 4.3092 million hectares. Henan and Hebei both have varying degrees of yield reduction per unit area. Based on conditions in areas that have already been listed, yields in some parts of Liaoning may also decline. The overall tone for new-season supply may be a year-on-year decrease.

However, the listing times of late peanuts in Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong, and Henan basically overlap, and prices may see a wave of decline during the concentrated volume release stage. Nevertheless, as prices further bottom out, grassroots farmers may show some resistance to low prices. After risks decrease, oil mills and markets will also gradually enter the market. Sources with ideal quality may be stored and prices may be held firm, creating the possibility of prices bottoming out and rebounding. Zhuochuang Information initially expects that in Q4, the average price range for Baisha peanut common kernels in Zhumadian may be between 7,400-8,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the impact of October digging and drying weather in Henan production areas on quality. If quality is not ideal, the price gap between good goods and inferior goods may remain relatively wide.

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