Ahead of Micron Technology's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, due after the close on September 30 U.S. Eastern Time, seven major institutions have lined up with their pre-earnings views. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi, and D.A. Davidson all maintained positive ratings, while Goldman Sachs stayed neutral.

Price targets across the seven range from $1,100 to $2,000. All seven expect a strong quarter, with the core disagreement centering on how long the tight supply and demand for memory chips can last, and what valuation the current profit margins deserve.

Institutional Ratings, Price Targets and Key Pre-Earnings Views

D.A. Davidson (Buy, $2,000): Expects results to beat market expectations, arguing that AI memory demand and long-term customer agreements will help narrow the valuation gap. Key variables: sustainability of AI demand and the value of long-term agreements.

Bank of America (Buy, $1,550): Bullish on profitability, but views fiscal 2027 margins as more critical than a single quarter's results. Key variables: whether gross margin can hold near 85% and the scale of capital expenditure.

JPMorgan (Overweight, $1,540): Expects the quarter to beat market expectations and the company to raise guidance for the November quarter. Key variables: the degree of memory supply tightness and HBM4 ramp-up.

Wells Fargo (Overweight, $1,400): Raised earnings forecasts for fiscal 2027 and 2028 while cutting its price target, remaining cautious on the earnings peak and valuation. Key variables: how long high margins can persist and execution of long-term agreements.

Citi (Buy, $1,300): DRAM prices came in stronger than expected, with upside seen in both quarterly results and subsequent guidance. Key variables: DRAM and NAND price trends.

Morgan Stanley (Overweight, $1,200): Near-term demand and pricing remain strong, and earnings estimates are expected to be revised upward after the report, though by less than in previous quarters. Key variables: magnitude of estimate revisions and duration of industry strength.

Goldman Sachs (Neutral, $1,100): Also expects a strong quarter, but is more cautious on long-term new supply and current valuation. Key variables: supply after 2027, HBM4 and shareholder returns.

Tomorrow's Earnings: Broad Consensus on a Beat

Micron's revenue in the prior fiscal quarter was $41.46 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $25.11. The company's guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter was revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion; gross margin of about 86%; and adjusted earnings per share of $31, plus or minus $1.

Pre-earnings discussions among the seven institutions first revolve around whether actual results can exceed this guidance and how much the forecast for the November quarter will be raised. JPMorgan maintained its Overweight rating and $1,540 price target, expecting Micron's fourth-quarter revenue, gross margin and earnings per share to all beat market expectations, and anticipating an upward revision to November-quarter guidance. The bank believes customer demand, the ongoing HBM4 product ramp-up, and supply tightness extending into 2027 and even 2028 will support subsequent pricing.

Citi maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target to $1,300 from $1,150. It forecasts fourth-quarter revenue and earnings per share of $51 billion and $31.45, respectively, and lifted its estimates for both the August and November quarters. The basis is stronger-than-previously-estimated DRAM prices; Citi also expects AI demand and supply constraints to keep the DRAM and NAND markets undersupplied.

Even Goldman Sachs, the most cautious of the seven, expects Micron to deliver a strong quarter. Its fourth-quarter forecast is revenue of $51.9 billion, earnings per share of $32.54 and gross margin of 87.3%, all above the midpoint of Micron's prior guidance. Goldman maintained its Neutral rating and $1,100 price target, focusing on whether long-term new supply, long-term customer agreements, HBM4 progress and shareholder returns can support a higher valuation.

Bullish on Demand Sustainability, but Price Targets Still Diverge Sharply

D.A. Davidson offered the highest price target. Analyst Gil Luria reiterated a Buy rating and $2,000 price target on September 28, expecting Micron to beat market expectations. He believes AI models' demand for memory capacity and speed is still growing, and Micron's long-term supply agreements with customers enhance visibility into future business; his price target applies a 13x multiple to expected earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Morgan Stanley also maintained its Overweight rating but has a $1,200 price target. The bank believes near-term demand and pricing remain strong, and the market may continue to raise earnings estimates after the report; however, the magnitude of the upward revision may be smaller than in prior quarters. On how long the memory industry's strength can last, the bank believes a single earnings report cannot provide a sufficient answer.

Wells Fargo's adjustments better reflect this divergence: it cut its price target to $1,400 from $1,525 while maintaining an Overweight rating, and raised its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share forecasts by more than 10%. Wells Fargo expects memory supply tightness to continue supporting near-term results but believes the market will keep debating the earnings peak and the duration of high margins.

Gross Margin, Capital Expenditure and Long-Term Agreements in Focus for the Next Round

Bank of America maintained its Buy rating and $1,550 price target. Analyst Vivek Arya believes the key data points in the report are Micron's outlook for fiscal 2027 gross margin and capital expenditure: if gross margin can hold around 85%, the market's forecast of $150 to $200 in earnings per share for that fiscal year would be supported.

The bank expects Micron's fiscal 2027 capital expenditure to be in the mid-to-high range of over $40 billion, a considerable portion of which will be used to build cleanrooms and may not immediately translate into additional output. Long-term customer agreements are also an important basis for judging whether profits can persist. Micron previously said multi-year strategic customer agreements help improve the stability and predictability of results.

JPMorgan and D.A. Davidson place more emphasis on the demand visibility these agreements bring; Wells Fargo focuses on agreement expansion and execution; Bank of America believes contracts can smooth cyclical volatility, though long-term earnings ultimately depend on AI capital expenditure demand.

The seven institutions are broadly optimistic about this quarter's results, yet their price targets differ by $900. The key to this earnings report lies not only in how much the fourth fiscal quarter exceeds expectations, but also in what judgment Micron provides on fiscal 2027 gross margin, capital expenditure, supply growth and long-term orders.