On September 25, Twilio fell 5.36% in regular trading, trading at $283.55/share, with turnover of $171 million. The decline was directly triggered by HSBC downgrading Twilio's rating to Reduce, breaking the stock's recent upward momentum.

HSBC noted that while Meta's Muse AI agent has driven increased business volume for Twilio, it has not strengthened market confidence. The bank argued that Meta's in-house AI voice infrastructure could limit Twilio's ability to capture high-value revenue from each Muse interaction, and that the market has overestimated the incremental revenue attributable to Twilio. HSBC further highlighted that Meta retains the flexibility to switch to alternative CPaaS providers or connect directly with carriers via SIP protocols, meaning AI agent traffic growth benefits the broader industry without guaranteeing outsized returns for Twilio specifically.

The downgrade comes on the heels of a sustained rally fueled by Twilio's strong Q2 results, which saw revenue of $1.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.47, both well above expectations. Multiple banks, including Morgan Stanley and Stifel, had previously raised their target prices, and director-level insider buying further bolstered sentiment. HSBC's contrarian call effectively interrupted this bullish trend.

(The above content is based on publicly available market information, generated by a program or algorithm, and is intended solely as a stock movement alert. It does not constitute investment advice or a basis for trading decisions.)