Morgan Stanley has released a research report stating that despite trade tensions, China continues to deepen its position in global supply chains by increasing its share of value-added in global imports and expanding exports to emerging markets.

The firm expects this trend to continue, driving China's share of the global export market from the current 15% to 16.5% by 2030. Morgan Stanley noted that despite rising protectionist measures, China's participation in global supply chains is still intensifying.

Since 2017, China's market share in global exports has risen by 2 percentage points; according to the firm's estimates, China's contribution to value-added in global imports excluding China has also increased by 2 percentage points, with this growth broadly covering most manufacturing sectors.

The firm stated that China is at the forefront of emerging industries, leveraging innovation and proprietary technology to establish dominance. Due to its highly integrated domestic supply chain, China plays a critical role in supplying low-cost components and high-end capital goods.

As the firm previously emphasized, China's policymakers have already begun laying out the next phase of the industrial cycle. As the world enters the era of Embodied AI, China has already established a dominant position in robotics and humanoid robots, and is working to apply embodied intelligence to industrial scenarios.

Morgan Stanley noted that since 2017, U.S. tariffs and non-tariff measures have caused China's share of U.S. imports to drop by 14 percentage points, but the firm's estimates found that the share of value-added from China in U.S. imports has actually remained stable. In other words, the U.S. is effectively importing goods from China indirectly.

However, considering that China's share of value-added in imports from the rest of the world rose by 2 percentage points over the same period, the U.S. has at least achieved stability in controlling the Chinese content in its imports.

Morgan Stanley stated that for the rest of the world, especially emerging market countries, their trade relationships with China are continuing to deepen. These countries not only rely on China to meet domestic demand but also depend on China to supply parts and various components needed to expand exports.

For example, although India has made significant progress in electronics manufacturing, it still needs to import large quantities of intermediate goods and capital goods from China.