JPMorgan has released a research report updating its forecasts for Bud APAC (01876) to reflect a more cautious view on the third quarter.

The bank now expects third-quarter organic revenue and EBITDA to decline 11% and 19% year-on-year respectively, a further deterioration from the 1% and 9% declines in the first half, and has lowered its target price from HK$6.5 to HK$6, maintaining a Neutral rating.

On the business side, the bank believes the Chinese market appears to be deteriorating further, with limited demand recovery, typhoon disruptions, destocking, and continued promotional and marketing spending squeezing growth and profit margins; organic revenue and EBITDA in that market are expected to fall 15% and 22% year-on-year respectively.

South Korea's sales volume performance was better than the industry, but profit margins face pressure from rising commodity and distribution costs; organic revenue and EBITDA are expected to decline 4% and 12% year-on-year respectively.

The bank noted that both major markets are dragging down third-quarter EBITDA, and potential one-off items could further hit profitability, with third-quarter net profit expected to fall 78% year-on-year to US$40 million.

Meanwhile, the bank has cut its 2026 earnings per share forecast by 18% and its 2027-28 forecasts by 10%.