According to Zhitong Finance APP, the remedial measures proposed by the U.S. Department of Justice in an ad tech antitrust case will have a profound impact on the growth prospects of Magnite, Inc. (MGNI.US), prompting Bank of America Securities analyst Omar Dessouky to raise the advertising platform's price target by more than 50% to $38. Even after the stock rose nearly 10% on Tuesday, this price target still implies 48% upside potential.
The DOJ ruling found that the ad win rates of Magnite, Inc. (MGNI.US) and its peers have long been suppressed by monopolistic mechanisms. The core reason is that Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s ad exchange platform (AdX) has near-exclusive control over the largest source of advertising demand, while also possessing the pricing and audience data that support its bidding algorithms. Based on this, Dessouky judges that under a fair auction environment, Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s AdX win rate could drop to as low as 30%.
Dessouky expects that, according to the behavioral remedies already adopted in the memo opinion unsealed by the DOJ, advertising spend monopolized by Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s AdX exchange will flow to competitors including Magnite, Inc. (MGNI.US).
Dessouky stated: "We estimate that Magnite, Inc. (MGNI.US)'s share of open web display advertising spend will rise from 6% to 8%-10%, pushing its DV+ business into a growth trajectory; whereas the previous outlook was low growth or even zero growth."
Therefore, the analyst raised Magnite, Inc. (MGNI.US)'s 2028 EBITDA forecast by 28%, and believes that if Magnite, Inc. (MGNI.US) achieves truly fair bidding conditions within Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s ad traffic pool, while its win rate in existing ad traffic continues to improve, this earnings metric still has room for further upward revision.
He wrote: "Overall, we believe that in the coming years, Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s AdX may cede nearly half of its 60% market share to four major competitors."