According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin encountered pressure from macroeconomic data while attempting to break through the key resistance level of $85,000, ultimately falling back below $84,000. This price action is directly tied to how the latest US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation data reshaped market expectations.
The collapse in price microstructure began on September 30 at 12:30 PM UTC, when the August PCE data was officially released and Bitcoin's brief upward momentum quickly dissipated. By 3:28 PM UTC, the trading price had approached $84,000. Although the cumulative return over 24 hours still registered 0.56%, the sharp intraday swings failed to translate into a trend-breaking move.
The underlying reason lies in the confirmation of inflation stickiness: data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that headline PCE inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month and climbed to 3.4% year-over-year. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month and held at 3.0% year-over-year. It is worth noting that these figures were revised based on annual account updates beginning in January 2021, so comparisons require extra caution. The revised tables show that both headline and core inflation were 0.1% in July, then rose to 0.3% and 0.2% respectively in August. Directly comparing the new report with unrevised July data would produce misleading version differences.
Headline inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target. The monthly month-over-month figure reflects near-term price pressures, while the annual year-over-year figure reveals the long-term inflation trend. Together they point to continuing price increases, providing a more complex backdrop for policy discussions without directly determining the Fed's next move.
The correlated reaction across traditional asset markets showed notable divergence. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY.US) traded steadily around $766.82, while spot Brent crude oil recovered to $102.20 per barrel. Both benefited from valuation repricing driven by rising bond yields. Meanwhile, gold via CFD quotes stood at $4,163.92 per ounce, below the previously breached $4,200 level, indicating that risk aversion did not fully dominate the market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilized at 101.39 after pulling back from highs.
The more critical variable lies in the bond market. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.276%, and the UK 30-year gilt yield reached 5.939%. The simultaneous rise in sovereign yields across the two major economies pushed bond prices lower, which in turn provided liquidity support for the rebound in stocks and oil. Because the above data correspond to different trading sessions, it is difficult to isolate each asset's immediate reaction to the inflation data. Still, the overall picture is clear: stocks and crude oil strengthened, Bitcoin's breakout failed, and gold, the dollar, and the bond market each followed their own independent logic.
From a timing perspective, today's PCE data reflects economic conditions in August, while upcoming manufacturing and employment data will cover September. Due to this mismatch in reference months, trends in inflation and economic growth may still evolve further.
For Bitcoin, failing to hold $85,000 and slipping below $84,000 marks the exhaustion of short-term bullish momentum. Traders are closely watching whether the market can build a sustained rebound base before the macro data vacuum, after the initial buying drive fades. This will be a key signal for judging the direction of the next move.